What the complex Guardians' pitching plan should look like for ALDS Game 5

The single greatest advantage the Guardians gave themselves by wrestling the division away from the Chicago White Sox was the ability to set up their rotation.

This allowed the Guards to trot Gavin Williams and Parker Messick out to the mound to start four of five ALDS games, and as the series approaches Game 5, it will be Gavin Williams who gets the pill for the decisive game.

Williams closed out Game 4, in a move I believe could have been avoided had the bullpen been managed differently - though in Stephen Vogt’s defense, you cannot worry about the next game until you’ve won the game to get you there. 

All hands are on deck in the Postseason.

Though the Guardians' bats caught fire on the South Side and the White Sox bullpen appears to be leaking oil, things tend to balance out and I expect the offense to produce more than the first two games in Cleveland, but also to take a step back from what it was in Chicago.

With that, the Guardians will need to pitch well and have a solid plan in place for their starter and the relievers to follow.

What should that plan look like?

Gavin Williams starts pitching plan and gives the Guardians 4-5 good innings

Gavin Williams was utterly dominant against the Sox in his Game 2 start, striking out 11 of 15 batters retired. In an ideal world, he will not only display similar greatness, but also give the Guardians some length.

Pitch count goes out the window in a do-or-die game, and if he is dealing, it would be wise for Cleveland to keep sending him out there to start each inning. It is fair to wonder, however, whether closing out Game 4 will impact his Game 5 performance.

One can make the case either way as to how that outing may impact Williams. It should be noted the Atlanta Braves had to push Chris Sale to Game 3 (rather than Game 2) in the NLDS, where he grinded against the Dodgers, who ultimately put up good at bats against him and worked his count. A similar fate could await Williams.

Or, he could simply dominate, building off of the momentum of his first start and clutch relief appearance. After all, the Sox have not had success against him this series. Of course, Williams will have an extremely short leash, but if all goes well he will get through four or five innings at least.

Small circle of trust: Herrin to Gaddis to Smith

I believe in a close winner take all game that you should go with your guns, if the situation aligns itself accordingly.

No different than a basketball coach shortening his rotation deep into the playoffs, a manager should only throw guys who have shown success in a series in an elimination game.

The order of Tim Herrin and Hunter Gaddis can be flipped, depending on the situation and number of left-handed batters the White Sox have coming to the plate in the inning. If possible, Herrin first would be my preference, as it may force Venable to pinch-hit a right-handed hitter who will then have no choice but to face Gaddis and Cade Smith in the later stages of the game.

If Williams only lasts four innings, Gaddis could certainly give you multiple frames, in addition to Smith providing two innings after a day's rest. I would also be willing to send Smith out for three innings if he feels good and looks sharp.

If you go down, it's better to know you took your best shot.

Chaos erupts

Of course, how often does everything go according to plan in sports?

Mike Tyson said it best: “Everyone has a plan until they get hit.” Everything could go out the window in a moment’s notice. If that were to happen, who might we see get the ball?

Gaddis and Smith will be on the mound at some point regardless of the score, but a couple of surprises may be in store.

If Williams is pulled early, I would not be shocked at all to see Foster Griffin come in early to eat a couple of innings, especially after his dominant Game 3 performance. He is yet another southpaw who can neutralize the White Sox left-handed hitters.

The same can be said of Joey Cantillo, who pitched relatively briefly in Game 3 as well. I would doubt we see Tanner Bibee after he struggled to command his pitches in Game 4. I would say the same for Daniel Espino and Matt Festa, though Vogt has shown a willingness to use Festa in leverage situations previously.

No one can be entirely ruled out in a must-win situation, which means…

Dark horse: Guards ace redeems himself

Wouldn’t it be something to see Parker Messick get work after a short outing only two days before? I don’t think it is as far-fetched as it may sound.

Yes, Messick struggled with command, which led to an early exit in Game 4. However, he only made one mistake in Game 1 and dominated the White Sox during the regular season. He is also not afraid of the moment, as evidenced by previous big-time starts he has made in his young career.

I would not be shocked whatsoever if Vogt utilizes Messick as a literal ace up his sleeve. This could be to eat innings, or a more likely scenario in which Messick is used to get out of an early-inning jam in such a way that Smith would not need to be leveraged too early.

This is not unheard of, and pitchers have accomplished similar feats in the past. Certainly, should this happen and all end well, Messick would endear himself to the Cleveland faithful more than he already has.

Nothing is certain nor scripted in a winner-take-all game, and if the season series between these two clubs is indicative of Game 5, we are sure to have a wild one. Cleveland is set up better from a pitching standpoint which should give both the team and fans cause for optimism. Hopefully, when all is said and done, we will be discussing how the Guardians plan to line up their pitching in the ALCS.

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