4 things Guardians must do to secure Game 4 win after stealing momentum from the White Sox

It may have taken a few games to wake up, but the Guardians offense finally arose in yesterday’s Game 3 win to stay alive in the ALDS. They plated nine runs, all against a White Sox bullpen that had been dominant through their first four Postseason games.

The Guardians must still climb uphill to win this series, starting with forcing a decisive Game 5 back in Cleveland. They should have confidence to get the job done as their ace, Parker Messick, will take the bump against TBD for the White Sox (do they even know who they’re throwing out there?).

Everything went right yesterday for the Guards to keep their season alive. Let’s look at what must happen today to even the series:

Keys to Guardians evening the ALDS and sending White Sox back to Cleveland

Guardians NEED to score first

Rate Field was electric yesterday and undoubtedly it will be even louder at the start of Game 4. The White Sox have not clinched a Postseason series at home since before the Great War and their fans will try to do their part to change that.

The Guardians will need to score first (and early) to neutralize the crowd and take the energy out of the ballpark.

Though the lineup delivered yesterday, Kwan and DeLauter were a combined 2-10 and will have to be enforcers. This is especially true as José Ramírez seemed to return to form in Game 3 and may be pitched around by White Sox pitchers.

Scoring first would not only provide the Guardians with a statistical advantage, as teams that do so win overwhelmingly more often than not, but it would also turn a fun and exuberant energy into nervousness.

Certainly, the White Sox fans were ready to celebrate like it was 2005 before the game yesterday. It is easy to be loose and excited when up 2-0, especially in a five-game set.

Both the players and their fans know what they are staring down the barrel at, however; two premier pitchers who shut the Sox down in Games 1 and 2. Had the offense even provided a little bit, Cleveland likely wins those two games.

Thus, in scoring first, the Guardians would create a nervous energy around Rate Field which could cause the White Sox players to press in a desperate attempt to not have to fly back to Cleveland.

Messick needs to deal and go deep into the game

Fair or not, Messick is now unequivocally the Guardians' ace, though he still carries rookie status. With such a title comes great responsibility.

Certainly, he does not appear afraid of any moment, having kept his composure in just about every big game he has pitched in his young career. But with the season on the line, this will be his greatest challenge.

Messick has pitched well against the White Sox, surrendering no more than three runs in each of his four starts against them in the regular season. He worked deep in those starts, with an average of 6.1 innings pitched in those starts.

His Game 1 start was not as poor as his line would suggest, having been pulled in the fifth, a controversial move to some. 

The White Sox are a power-hitting team and Messick will need to keep the ball in the yard. The only damage inflicted upon him during last Saturday’s game was from a Munetaka Murakami bomb into the right-field stands.

Messick will need to keep the ball in the yard against Murakami, Miguel Vargas, and Colson Montgomery, the White Sox biggest power threats.

Messick to Gaddis to Smith

This formula will be difficult to execute, but it will give the Guardians the best chance to get through the game as unscathed as possible. 

As I mentioned, Messick needs to go deep into his start and six innings would be ideal. This would allow Vogt to hand the ball off to Hunter Gaddis for the seventh and Cade Smith for the eighth and ninth innings, as he pitched yesterday.

There is good reason to be nervous that relievers have been used in each game thus far - not because of pitch counts, as there have been multiple off days in this ALDS, but because of their exposure to White Sox hitters.

That said, Gaddis has been one of the best setup men in MLB the last couple years and Cade Smith is arguably the number one closer in the sport at the moment.

Fortunately for him and the Guardians, Smith has not thrown many pitches in each of his three outings and the White Sox have given him little trouble.

A little bit of luck

It was nice to see the Guardians offense explode for nine runs in Game 3, but I do not see that happening a second time. I expect the White Sox pitching to be a little sharper and for runs to be difficult to come by for both teams.

As such, I think a little luck will be needed for the Guardians. A timely hit here, a bad bounce there, all in the name of forcing the defense to make clean plays.

This is not an indictment of the Guardians, as I believe every team that advances far into the Postseason or ultimately wins the whole thing needs some luck. What would you call Miguel Rojas’ home run during Game 7 of last year’s Fall Classic?

Nonetheless, the Guardians will need the baseball gods to be on their side.

Obviously, it is the Guardians with their backs against the wall and the White Sox playing with house money, as they have been for all of the 2026 campaign. The Guardians need to win two of two and the Sox only one.

But, young teams who are up big tend to press when they see their lead dwindle. We witnessed this once already during the AL Central Division race and it very well could happen again in this ALDS.

The White Sox have not made the ALCS since 2005 and you can bet Rate Field will be ready to explode. You can also bet that if the Guardians take an early lead, nervous energy will fill the park as the game progresses.

Get early offense. Get good pitching from the ace. Get the ball to Cade. Get some October magic.

Get back to Cleveland.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow