The Cleveland Guardians' three-step blueprint to success in the ALCS vs. the Rays

It took a stellar pitching effort and an impossible home run from José Ramírez, but the Cleveland Guardians completed the improbable and pulled off an 0-2 series comeback against the Chicago White Sox, earning an opportunity to play the Tampa Bay Rays in the ALCS.

The Rays finished with 98 wins, the best in the American League, and dismantled the New York Yankees in a three-game sweep in the ALDS. No, the Yankees did not have Aaron Judge, but I am not sure whether it would have mattered, as the Rays pitched better, fielded better, and had timely hits, controlling the series from the first “play ball.”

This clash of Cleveland and Tampa Bay, who rank 29th and 27th in their payrolls respectively, comes with a bit of irony as the upcoming CBA negotiations loom large over baseball. Certainly, there will be more time to discuss the economy of Major League Baseball this offseason, but it is worth celebrating the success of these two clubs both now and over the better part of the last several years.

The Rays are indisputably the favorites heading into the ALCS and with good reason. As mentioned, they had the best record in the AL this season and were tied with the best record at home in baseball (Milwaukee), suggesting Tropicana Field serves as a legitimate home-field advantage. The Guardians for their part played much better on the road than at home during the regular season, as well as in their ALDS win against the White Sox.

The Guardians were 1-5 against the Rays during the regular season; however, both series took place prior to the trade deadline with different-looking rosters. I do not take much stock in regular season series when compared to Postseason matchups anyway, as the pitching does not always line up the same and there is less opportunity to prepare for the opposing team.

Do the Rays' home-field advantage, ability to set up their rotation, and general dominance this season mean the Guardians stand no chance? I do not believe that to be the case. That said, I do believe the Guardians will need to play sharp and clean baseball throughout the series and execute well because the Rays do not beat themselves and are a much more formidable roster than the White Sox. This is especially true over the course of a longer seven-game series.

Here is what I believe must happen in order for the Guardians to pull of an ALCS upset:

DeLauter and Adell must produce behind José Ramírez

José Ramírez finally broke out of a season-long slump in Game 3 of the ALDS and rode that momentum all the way through the rest of the series, with the climatic triumph of a game-winning home run on a 7-iron swing that made Progressive Field explode into a state of hysteria. He ended the series with an insane .278/.409/.778 slashline, adding two homers and seven RBI to his name and demonstrating the future Hall of Famer he is when he's right.

That was all a welcome sight to Guardians fans, and I imagine his approach at the plate will remain the same, and anytime he sees a good pitch to hit over the plate will have his a-swing clicking. I do believe, however, Kevin Cash and the Tampa Bay Rays pitching staff will do their best to neutralize Ramírez by pitching around him and making others in the Guardians lineup beat them; namely Chase DeLauter and Jo Adell.

The good thing is I do not believe Ramírez will chase out of the zone, as he seems more dialed in than ever at the moment. He recorded a walk in four of the five games against the White Sox and is willing to pass the baton. He is also a menace on the basepaths, willing to steal bases when given the opportunity and excellent at taking the open base. This should provide RBI opportunities for DeLauter and Adell, who had their moments in the ALDS and will need to provide consistent at-bats.

DeLauter proved capable of being in the spotlight during the ALDS with a .250 batting average and .318 OBP, while having a handful of good swings that found gloves. His eye at the plate is uniquely exceptional for a player his age, as he had a couple of walks last series and did not strike out once. His approach, should it remain, can make Rays pitchers work and drive up the pitch count while mounting pressure with long at-bats.

Adell has more holes in his swing, which can provide Rays pitchers with more holes to target, but he also has more power potential. Of his five hits in the ALDS, two were triples (one just short of a home run) and he added six RBI to his statline. He, of course, is the biggest home run threat for the Guardians, though Ramírez may now have him beat in that regard. After wearing the golden sombrero in Game 1 and striking out twice in game 2, he only had one strikeout a game in the remaining three games. It is not exactly ideal, but if the power shows in this series, it will be well worth the swings and misses, especially if it comes with others on base.

Cleveland’s pitching must match Tampa Bay’s

The Guardians and Rays pitching staffs were remarkably similar during the regular season in 2026. The Guardians were eighth in ERA (3.77), having the upper-hand in strikeouts at 1,520 to 1,322 over the Rays. The Rays were a bit better with their command, handing out fewer free passes and having a WHIP of 1.14 to the Guardians' 1.26.

Because the Guardians had to utilize Parker Messick and Gavin Williams as starters in ALDS Games 4 & 5, they will not be able to line up their pitching 1,2,3 as the Rays will be able to, but each of the team's top three starters stack up fairly evenly. Messick, the Guardians ace (though Williams may beg to differ) had a 2.56 ERA to Drew Rasmussen’s 2.67 ERA. Rasmussen will start Game 1 for Tampa Bay and took a no-hitter into the eighth inning against the Yankees in the ALDS, while Messick had more bumps in the road.

Gavin Williams and Nick Martinez are polar opposites on the mound and would be an intriguing matchup if they deal across from one another. Williams is a strikeout aficionado, as the ALDS proved, while Martinez is a “stuff” pitcher who had only 109 strikeouts in 180 innings pitched during the regular season. That could work in the Guardians' favor as it did for the Yankees, who knocked Martinez out in the fourth inning, but could not win the game.

Foster Griffin, on the bump for Cleveland in Game 1, and Freddy Peralta go about pitching in stylistically different ways, but are in similar situations as potential x-factors for their respective clubs. They could both pitch excellently, and have done so at various times throughout the season. They could also both exit the game earlier than they would like. 

The bullpens were both very good during the regular season, and the Rays come into the ALCS well rested while the Guardians are a bit worn. Both closers are elite. Cade Smith was objectively one of the best closers in the American League, if not baseball, and proved so in the ALDS against the White Sox, having pitched in all five games. Bryan Baker had a great season in his own right, recording 41 saves with a 1.44 ERA. He also proved dominant against the Yankees in the ALCS.

Because of the dominance of both teams’ starters and closers, these games may come down to the pitching during the “in-between” innings and the opposing offenses' ability to score on the middle relievers. Pick your poison: Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin, Erik Sabrowski and co. versus Cam Booser, Kevin Kelly and co.

Cleveland MUST win one of the first two games on the road

Given that the Rays have home-field advantage, the Cleveland Guardians must come out of the first two games having won at least one, reversing home-field advantage in their favor. This will be no easy task as, again, the Rays had the best record at home in the AL with a 69% winning percentage. Tropicana Field, for all its nooks and crannies, is a tough place to play in general. Just ask the Yankees.

If Cleveland goes down 2-0 in the series, it would essentially mean they need to win all three in Cleveland to have a chance to win the series. Coming out of Tampa Bay tied 1-1 would give Cleveland some breathing room and allow them to win two of three at home, still with the advantage going into Game 6. Moreover, teams that go up 2-0 in a 7-game series win the series 83% of the time.

Certainly, this Guardians club has a knack for coming from behind, but even a two-game split heavily increases their chances to compete in and win this series.

Cleveland is used to being counted out by the national baseball population and this series is no different. Most of the talking heads believe the Rays are heavy favorites and will prevail, with many predicting a short series. Of course, baseball history is full of examples of teams pulling off the upset and surprising everyone.

I do believe the Rays are a favorite and, to their credit, they were the best team in the American League this season. I think even the most die-hard Guardians fans would agree with that assessment. I do also believe there is a pathway for Cleveland to win the series and clinch their first pennant since the 2016 season. 

This series will be a good one and likely a close one, with most games decided by a few runs or less. Cleveland has momentum from the ALDS and the Rays have now had a bit of downtime, sparking the always fun "rest versus rust" debate in baseball. Nonetheless, both of these teams mirror each other in several areas and I would not be shocked if the Guardians compete in this series.

Let’s hope in due time the discussion is whether we’d rather see the Guardians play the Brewers or Dodgers in the Fall Classic.

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