Guardians clearly hold key pitching advantage heading into Game 5 of ALCS

Game 4 of the ALCS was largely a dud for the Guardians as the offense was slow to get going and the defense looked a bit sloppy in the aftermath of a rainstorm. The Rays controlled the game for the most part and have now evened the series at 2-2, making what was once a seven-game series a three-game set.

Sure, the Guardians would have loved to win Game 4, but it always felt like this series was going to go six or seven games, and yesterday's loss all but confirms that.

The good news is that the Guardians didn't use Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis or Erik Sabrowski on Saturday and have their two best starters waiting in the wings in Parker Messick and Gavin Williams.

While it may seem a bit obvious to say that today's Game 5 is a swing game, the numbers are a bit staggering. In a best-of-seven format, the winner of Game 5 in a series that's tied 2-2 has gone on to win the series 67% of the time. It is even more crucial that Cleveland wins because the road team that won Game 5 before heading home went on to win the series 74% of the time.

The Guardians can't afford to let up tonight against the Rays in Game 5 of the ALCS

Both teams have pitched well in this series aside from one game in which their staffs blew up (Rays in Game 1 and Guardians in Game 4), and it seems like tonight's game will have another pitching-heavy script since Messick will be going against Rays starter Drew Rasmussen.

Messick rebounded from his first couple of postseason outings with a strong Game 2 start where he shut the Rays out for five innings, though he allowed eight baserunners and only recorded three strikeouts.

Although the Guardians went on to win Game 1 by a score of 7-3, Rasmussen’s largely did everything he needed to do. Most of the Guardians' damage was done after he was pulled, as he went six innings and allowed two runs on solo home runs to Chase DeLauter and Patrick Bailey.

Still, that was a far less dominant outing that the one he had in the ALDS against the Yankees, which is a good sign for the Guardians. Yes, it is hard to be better than carrying a one-hitter into the ninth, but it's not like the Guardians just tallied a few hits against Rasmussen. They had eight. That is a great sign for a lineup that relies on contributions up and down the lineup.

In a decided advantage for Game 5, the Guardians “A” bullpen has now been rested multiple days due to Friday’s rainout, whereas the Rays deployed their best arms and Freddy Peralta to get yesterday’s win. Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis have both shown they can go multiple innings and they may be relied upon to do so today, as the series is now shortened and urgency is at its highest.

A lot must happen tonight and who knows the outcome, but the Guardians also have an advantage in their best pitcher waiting in the wings in Gavin Williams.

Should Cleveland win tonight, they will have a great decision to make; try to close the series out with Williams in Game 6 OR take your chances with a bullpen game in Game 6 knowing he is available for a do-or-die Game 7.

If the Guards could pull a Game 6 win off without Williams, he would be available for Game 1 of the World Series. Of course, if they lose tonight, they would still have him for an elimination game tomorrow.

I believe tonight’s Game 5 to be the most important game in the series. The Rays still have home field, and though the Guardians won Game 1 in Tampa Bay, the Rays have not dropped two straight at home since the middle of August. The stats are also heavily in the favor of the team who wins tonight, and even if the Guardians make it to a Game 7, anything can happen at that point.

My verdict: the Guardians need to win in six games to win the series and lean on their two best starting pitchers and their bullpen. Anything else would be a huge roll of the dice.

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