3 things the Guardians need to do to beat White Sox in ALDS

The dust has now settled on the Wild Card round and the Guardians will play the Chicago White Sox in the ALDS.

The Sox swept their Wild Card Series against the Astros, and it was not particularly close. Game 1 finished 6-3 and Game 2 ended 7-3, though neither game was as close as the score would indicate.

The season series between the Guardians and White Sox suggests this ALDS will be close. The White Sox won the season series by one game and also beat the Guardians in the run differential by one game.

The season series was about as close as it could get between two teams who know each other quite well. With that, let’s look at what the Guardians will need to do in order to win a five-game set against the White Sox.

The Guardians' ALDS matchup against the White Sox should be close

The aces need to perform

This is perhaps the most obvious answer as to what will need to happen for the Guardians to advance.

The Guards are built on a strong rotation led by the two-headed monster of Parker Messick and Gavin Williams. Fortunately, the Guardians will be able start that duo in four of the five games in the series thanks to their bye through the Wild Card Series.

Both pitched in all four series against the White Sox this season and performed well.

Messick averaged just over 6 1/3 innings against the Sox this season, and it will be important for him to continue his success.

Munetaka Murakami has one home run against Messick this season, while Colson Montgomery is hitting .200 in 11 plate appearances. Murakami and Montgomery both smashed 30+ home runs for Chicago this season.

Gavin Williams has shown similar success against the White Sox, however, he tends to leave his starts earlier than Messick. He averaged just over five innings a start versus the White Sox this season, but only gave up 2.25 runs in his four starts.

Williams has been more up-and-down than Messick this season, though I believe his stuff will play better in the postseason.

He can rack up the strikeouts with the best of them, which is a must in the postseason. He led the American League with 248 strikeouts, and the Sox hitters have holes in their swing that could allow for Williams to put up big strikeout numbers.

The Guardians are 38-26 in games in which Messick and Williams have started, and they'll need both of them to do well against Chicago.

Score early and score first

This point is rather obvious too, as any metric will tell you that teams who score first during the postseason have a much better chance to win. For the Guardians, it may mean even more as their offense relies so much on situational hitting.

Part of the reason Houston never felt like they were ever in their series against the White Sox is the that the Sox scored first in every game before the Astros got a chance to hit.

The Guardians need to set the tone first, which falls on the top of the lineup.

Steven Kwan turned around his production halfway through the season and will need to set the table for Chase DeLauter and José Ramírez. DeLauter, of course, was hot in the month of September and has been a great three-hole hitter for the Guardians.

As bizarre as this is to say, I believe Ramírez will be the X-factor for Cleveland’s offense.

In every other Guardians postseason run for the past decade, he was the one carrying the offense and the biggest question would be whether someone else would be able to step up around him. That's flipped this year thanks to Ramírez's struggles.

His hamate bone injury seems to have sapped him of his power, and I don't expect those power numbers to return this postseason.

That said, if he can just get on base or move Kwan over then DeLauter and Jo Adell will have ample opportunities to drive in runs. Ramírez will always have his wheels, which adds an extra layer of danger.

Serve up solo home runs, not game-changers

Even with good pitching, the White Sox are likely to “get theirs” and hit some home runs this series. They were third in the American League in home runs hit, and the Guardians pitching staff had some moments where they struggled with the longball.

What will serve as the difference in this series, however, is whether those home runs are solo shots or multi-run scoring home runs. The former we call “limiting the damage” and the latter can change series and end seasons.

In order to win, the Guardians will need to pitch well, play clean defense, score when the opportunity presents itself and not surrender a death blow homer that can change the momentum in an instant.

I will not relive the horrors of the 2024 ALCS, but there are some big swings we all remember that sent the Guardians packing. 

That said, I believe the Guardians will be able to limit the damage against the White Sox. It will be interesting to see if the White Sox's swings get bigger as the moments get more intense. If so, the Guardians' pitching staff could exploit that to get more swing-and-miss.

I am not sure what will happen in this series other than that we're going to see some wild games.

The regular season was full of one-run battles, walk-offs, and surprise performances on both sides from guys you would not expect.

I predict the Guardians will win one of two in Cleveland, followed by one of two in Chicago, setting up a decisive game five in Cleveland once again.

Give me the Guards in five, won by a home run from someone none of us would expect.

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