Tanner Bibee's dominance is changing the Guardians' long-term picture in real time

While Tanner Bibee has always shown flashes of dominance throughout his career, there were also some warning signs sprinkled in.

After his first two seasons in the bigs, it seemed like Cleveland had found their new ace who would be a perennial All-Star.

However, the wheels came off a little last season and he became an average pitcher who was wildly inconsistent. Still good enough to be on almost any rotation, but someone who looked like a No. 4 or 5 starters instead of an ace.

It was clear this was going to be a defining year for him, and his success would determine a lot about how the season went for the Guardians. 

Luckily for both him and the Guardians, he's been able to answer the call.

Tanner Bibee's finally rounding into form

Early returns

The season started off rather ominously after he left his Opening Day start with a shoulder injury. While he didn't end up missing any time, he followed that up with a pair of average starts in Los Angeles and Kansas City, followed up by an abysmal showing in Atlanta.

The early returns suggested that we would be seeing more of 2025 version of Bibee who would have the occasional gem, but was more likely to get hit around.

Rest of the first half

After the blow-up against Atlanta (eight earned runs in 4 2/3 innings) he has seemed to turn a corner.

Since that game, he's taken the mound 16 times and only allowed three or more runs three times. In the same stretch he has given up one run or fewer on seven occasions.

Unfortunately the offense has not been very kind to Bibee, and it seems like he's always leaving games in line for a no-decision in a 1-1 game. Despite the lackluster record (3-9) it is clear that Bibee has started to turn a corner.

He may not be back to the levels of dominance he showed in his breakout 2023 campaign, but his recent results show that he can be trusted at the top of the rotation.

The team-wide consequences

Bibee regaining form is helpful for a few key reasons.

First, Cleveland's bullpen is always one of the most used units in the league. Having another starter who manager Stephen Vogt knows can go deep into games makes it a lot easier to deploy the bullpen more aggressively in other games.

Another major factor is relieving stress on Gavin Williams and Parker Messick. Messick has clearly been the best pitcher in the rotation and Williams has also been having a great season.

Having Bibee be just as good behind them takes some pressure off them and gives Vogt the ability to pull either of them early if their pitch count skyrockets or if something does not seem right. 

Burning bullpen arms is less scary when you know Bibee's a lock to go 5+ innings the next night.

Moving forward

While Bibee finished the first half on a tear, he'll have to continue to prove that he can take that strong first half and parlay it into a strong season.

His resurgence should lead to an interesting trade deadline for the Guardians since he's return to form means the Guardians don't need to overpay for a mid-line starter, but adding another arm is never a bad idea.

In an ideal world, Cleveland will get to the postseason and be able to deploy a Messick-Williams-Bibee rotation in a three game series. We still have a long way to go before we get there, but Bibee's strong season is enough to get us dreaming.

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