Steven Kwan’s arbitration projection offers stark reminder of how different Guardians could look in 2027

At the start of the postseason, MLB Trade Rumors’ Matt Swartz put out his projections for how much each arbitration-eligible player could make when they take their turn through the process in the winter (or spring, depending on how long the lockout goes). 

In years prior, the Guardians’ section on Swartz’s list mostly consisted of fringe players who weren’t set to make a lot and obvious non-tender candidates. 

That won’t be the case this year, thanks to the inclusion of Steven Kwan, who Swartz projected to make $11.3 million in 2027 in his final bite of the arbitration apple. 

The biggest story of this year’s offseason is obviously going to the impending lockout, but Kwan’s arbitration (and potential trade market) should jump to the front of the lineup once baseball comes back. 

Steven Kwan could be back in the middle of Guardians trade rumors this offseason

Kwan’s name has been front and center in trade rumors for the better part of the past 18 months thanks to that impending free agency, but the Guardians’ front office held off on trading him at every opportunity and decided to pay him the $7.7 million he was owed via arbitration. 

And that initially looked like a mistake, given how much Kwan struggled at the start of the season, but he finished the regular season on an absolute tear and ended up ending the year as one of the best qualified hitters in baseball. 

He was going to get a raise no matter what because that’s how arbitration works, but that jumped up exponentially thanks to his second half performance. 

That second half surge helped the Guardians push their way to the American League Central crown, but it could also have some long-term ramifications given how much Kwan is set to make. 

Normally the Guardians trade away their players as they get closer to free agency and their price tags go up. In fact, it’s a bit of a miracle that he's still on their roster right now. 

The Guardians have some young players who could fill Kwan’s spot in the outfield, but that still wouldn’t take away the sting that would come with losing him in free agency. 

The other Guardian who could have their long-term future dictated through arbitration is closer Cade Smith, who was projected to make $5.5 million in his first run through the process. 

Smith has already racked up 58 saves and an All-Star nod in his first three years in MLB, and - most important when it comes to his arbitration future - is set to be the Guardians’ closer for the long-term. 

Saves are one of the biggest things that can raise a pitcher’s price tag in arbitration, so Smith’s earnings are just going to rise exponentially over the next couple seasons so long as the Guardians aren’t able to ink him to a long-term contract. 

The Guardians having so many arbitration-eligible players is a double-edged sword, and they may have to walk on that edge at some point in the offseason.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow