3 Guardians pitchers who they should lock up after Nationals set tone with Cade Cavalli

Over the weekend the Nationals made the kind of move the Guardians have been known for when they signed starting pitcher Cade Cavalli to a four-year extension that will guarantee him $47 million while having a variety of performance escalators. 

While the start of Cavalli’s career didn’t go the way the Nationals planned due to Tommy John surgery and a variety of arm injuries, he’s in the midst of a breakout season to the tune of a 3.02 ERA in 169 2/3 innings. 

Although Cavalli’s deal may have come at an odd time in the baseball calendar, the timing of it sets a clear precedent for the Guardians when it comes to potential extensions with their pitchers. 

Here are three Guardians pitchers who the team should open extension talks with in the offseason. 

Cade Cavalli's contract extension with the Nationals sets a good precedent for the Guardians in extension talks with their pitchers

Parker Messick 

The grandfather of them all. 

After shining in his late season cameo last year, Messick has reached a new level this year and should end the year with a top-three Rookie of the Year finish along with a top-five Cy Young finish. 

We highlighted him as a potential extension candidate last offseason, and that theme is even more true this year (even if his price tag clearly has gone up).

Cavalli’s extension is also an interesting point of comparison to Messick. Although Cavalli entered the year with 14 more big league innings under his belt than Messick (53 innings for Cavalli compared to Messick’s 39 2/3 innings), Cavalli is in his first year of arbitration as a Super Two player while Messick entered 2026 three years away from arbitration. 

Not only has Messick had a better season than Cavalli by pretty much every measure, he also has more team control than Cavalli did.

Any Messick deal would likely start in the five-year range to buy out all of his arbitration years, and would likely need to pay a bit more than Cavalli’s deal, which guarantees him around $11.25 million a year. 

A five-year deal with $75 million guaranteed ($15 million AAV) with some performance escalators seems like a good place to start for Messick. The longer they go without signing him, the more his price tag goes up.

Although their extension with Tanner Bibee hasn’t worked out the way they imagined, now is the time to strike for Messick. 

Gavin Williams is the other ace-level starter who would be a great fit for an extension, but it’s hard to believe that would happen since he’s represented by mega-agent Scott Boras. 

Cade Smith 

Smith and Cavalli aren’t a great comp since Smith is a reliever and Cavalli is a starter, but his contract is a great avenue to beat the drum for the Guardians to extend Smith. 

He’s morphed into one of the league’s best shutdown relievers after being thrust into the closer role last season, and entered the week with a 2.02 ERA in 71 1/3 innings. He’s recorded four multi-inning outings in September and hasn’t allowed an earned run in nearly a month. 

Simply put, Smith is one of the best relievers in baseball. 

This offseason will be his first year of arbitration (assuming that still exists after the lockout), and the Guardians have a great opportunity to get ahead of his rising arbitration price tag by inking him to a three-year deal that would buy out those seasons. 

The reliever market has been weird lately (Luke Weaver got a two-year, $22 million last season to go along with Edwin Díaz’s three-year, $60 million deal), but Smith would likely command a contract somewhere between the two of them. 

A three-year, $35 million deal seems like a fair starting point for both sides.

Foster Griffin

Griffin’s contract wouldn’t be an “extension” per se since he’s set to be a free agent after the season, but his struggles with the Guardians present Cleveland with a great buy-low opportunity with their prized trade deadline acquisition. 

He started the season working alongside Cavalli in the Nationals’ rotation and recorded a 3.06 ERA in 129 1/3 innings before being traded to the Guardians, where his production has taken a clear step back (5.79 ERA in 37 1/3 innings). 

While those struggles have been hard to see, it’s also a reminder that not every player hits the ground running after a mid-season trade — especially for pitchers. Along with having to assimilate to a new organization and city, but they also have to adjust to new pitching coaches.

Griffin’s age and struggles with the Guardians mean that his contract would likely land under Cavalli’s $47 million price tag, which would put him right in Cleveland's wheelhouse. 

The Guardians would have a headstart in free agent talks since he’s already on the roster, and they should use that to their advantage.

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