Stats show Guardians have 3 of baseball's unluckiest hitters (and No. 1 is obvious)

Although the Cleveland Guardians are going to enter their series-opener against the Braves with an 8-5 record, there’s still some clear areas for them to improve.

One of those areas to improve is the production of Kyle Manzardo, who currently boasts a .086 batting average (3-for-25) through 12 games. 

But that doesn’t tell the whole story, as Manzardo has an Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) of .313. xwOBA is measured by removing defense and the ballpark from the equation so a batter is graded just on batted-ball contact. 

In other words, Manzardo’s been one of the unluckiest hitters in all of baseball. So while his lack of production this season has been a bit frustrating, he’s doing the right thing and just not getting rewarded for it. 

And he’s not alone either, as fellow Guardians Bo Naylor (.303 xwOBA) and José Ramírez (.348 xwOBA) aren’t being rewarded for their hard contact either. 

Bo Naylor, Kyle Manzardo and José Ramírez are on the right track for Guardians

Manzardo ranking as one of baseball’s unluckiest hitters shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone who has watched him all season. Although he’s had plenty of fruitless at-bats (strikeout rate of 34.1%), he’s also averaged an exit velocity of 83.2 miles per hour (82nd percentile). 

While Manzardo’s put six balls in play this season with an exit velocity over 100 mph, he’s only recorded a hit on one of them (a sixth inning single against the Mariners on Opening Day). 

Other than that his hard contact has gotten him a lot of lineouts and sharp grounders. 

His numbers got a bit of a bump yesterday thanks to his eighth inning single against position player Tyler Tolbert, but the .141 difference between his wOBA (.172) and xwOBA is third in baseball behind Ke'Bryan Hayes and old friend Josh Naylor. 

Manzardo should still get plenty of opportunities to be in the lineup at either first base or designated hitter, so it’s only a matter of time before he turns things around.

The second unluckiest Guardians hitter has been Bo Naylor, who has a batting average of .138 (4-for-29) with no extra-base hits. 

Despite that, he’s posted an above-average whiff rate (18.1%) and barrel rate (14.3%), so he’s still putting together good at-bats, he just isn’t getting rewarded for them. 

He’s put seven balls in play over 100 mph but has a single hit to show for it. Naylor’s never going to be a guy who hits .300, but he’s better than his early-season production would make it seem. 

The  .107 difference between his wOBA (.196) and xwOBA (.303) is 11th in baseball. 

And the third and final Guardians hitter who has been unlucky has been Ramírez, who is arguably the most important player on the roster. 

For the past decade, any kind of on-field success for the Guardians usually correlated with production from Ramírez. That hasn’t been the case this season, as Ramírez is hitting just .163 through those 13 games, which is the third-worst batting average among Cleveland’s regulars. 

And while those stats would be no reason to panic regardless (his .260 batting average in April is the worst of his career), there’s even less of a reason to panic when you look under the hood. 

He’s still not swinging at pitches out of the zone (89th percentile in strikeout rate) and is making a quality contract (.268 expected batting average), he just hasn’t had much break his way. 

Luckily the rest of the Guardians’ lineup has been able to do enough to keep things afloat while he figures it out, and it only seems like a matter of time until he’s back putting balls over the fence in bunches.