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The Cleveland Guardians’ biggest need entering the 2022-23 offseason

By Kevin Devine |
Division Series - Cleveland Guardians v New York Yankees - Game Two
Division Series - Cleveland Guardians v New York Yankees - Game Two / Elsa/GettyImages
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The Cleveland Guardians exceeded expectations in just about every way in 2022. They played well throughout the season, improving as the year went along, and got scorching hot down the stretch, running away with the division title in September and taking advantage of down seasons from the rest of the AL Central. They beat the Tampa Bay Rays in the wild-card round and advanced to the ALDS where they ultimately fell to the New York Yankees.

They played Gold Glove-caliber defense, relied on consistently excellent pitching, and saw the fruit of a stocked minor-league system provide them with both depth in 2022 and a look at what could be in years to come.

The Guardians have not recently made any big splashes in free agency. In the 2021-22 offseason, they only added a few players via free agency, including catcher Austin Hedges and relievers Bryan Shaw and Enyel De Los Santos. With the state of the Guardians roster and payroll, there is no reason to believe they will be heavily involved in the free agent market this year, either. That being said, they do need to improve their power hitting if they are going to get to the next level.

The Guardians' lack of power was evident throughout their postseason run, and while they don’t need to overhaul the lineup and field a team full of mashers, if they are going to win in October they need to add more consistent power threats who can drive in multiple runs at a time, open up games and capitalize on the baserunners that the team consistently generates.

The good news for Cleveland is that this is an area where the Guardians can improve fairly easily via multiple avenues this offseason.

Cleveland Will Be Opportunistic in Trades This Offseason

There are two ways the Guardians can, and likely will, improve their offense via trade. The first is adding hitters capable of hitting more home runs, and the second is trading away players who, while valuable, did not contribute much in the way of power.

There has already been speculation about how the Guardians could add a power hitter or two to their lineup. We at ABG have already explored what it might take for Cleveland to acquire first baseman Rhys Hoskins from Philadelphia. Hoskins is a player that makes a lot of sense given his 30 home runs, 30 doubles, and relatively modest salary in his final year of arbitration. Given that he is just a year away from free agency, the prospect cost to acquire him would likely not be prohibitive.

Going a different route, the Guardians could look to acquire a younger power hitter with more years of control. Rising Apple’s Tim Boyle pointed out that the Guardians and Mets once again make for potential trade partners, and the Mets have multiple young players who could fit what Cleveland needs. First baseman Mark Vientos is major-league ready and could project as the second-biggest power threat on the Guardians (behind José Ramírez). Ronny Mauricio is a shortstop with some power who could replace Amed Rosario if the Guardians decided to trade him as well.

Look for the Guardians to be opportunistic in trades this offseason. Myles Straw makes for an interesting trade candidate and would be automatically replaced by some combination of Nolan Jones, Will Brennan and/or George Valera, all of whom would provide more offensively for the Guardians. Rosario makes for another interesting trade candidate given that he plays a premium position and his price tag is escalating via arbitration.

Internal Development of Players Currently on the Major-League Roster Will Increase Power

Ramírez led the Guardians with 29 home runs in 2022 despite playing for half the season with a torn ligament in his thumb that required offseason surgery to fix. He is expected to be ready for spring training, and there is no reason to expect regression now that his thumb is healthy. We may even see some of his league-leading doubles clear the wall.

In addition to a healthy season from Ramírez, it is easy to project increased power output from some of the younger players currently on the Guardians roster. Two players in particular seem likely to contribute more in 2023. First is catcher Bo Naylor, who only received a call-up for a cup of coffee at the end of the season. He hit 21 home runs as he graduated through two levels of the minor leagues in 2022, and will ultimately replace Austin Hedges. Even if Naylor struggles to find consistency in his rookie year, he should provide immediate improvement over Hedges, who hit .163 with just seven home runs in 2022. Naylor’s presence immediately lengthens the Guardians lineup heading into next year.

The other player we can expect growth from is right fielder Oscar Gonzalez. Gonzalez played just 91 games in 2022 after making his debut, but hit .296 with 11 home runs. Over 162 games, that projects to about a 20-home-run pace, which the Guardians would take in a heartbeat. However, Gonzalez’s minor-league numbers hint that he still has room for growth, as he hit nine home runs in 41 games at Triple-A in 2022 after hitting 31 home runs in 121 games across two levels in 2021. He has the potential to grow into a 25-30 home run threat, possibly as soon as next season.

Help From the Minor Leagues Keeps Coming

The Guardians used 17 rookies in 2022, and it seems like that is just the beginning of a strong stream of young talent that is on its way to Cleveland over the coming years. The Guardians have a number of prospects who will make an impact in 2023, including Brennan and Jones, who made their major-league debuts near the end of 2022, and Valera, who seems poised to make his debut in 2023 after hitting 24 home runs in 484 minor-league at-bats last year.

Neither Jones nor Brennan made a huge impact in 2022, but either one would be an immediate upgrade over Straw offensively. As we noted earlier, Straw could be dealt to a team looking to improve its own defense. Such a move would help control the Guardians' payroll moving forward and open the door for some of their younger players to step up.

The Guardians finished 29th out of 30 teams in home runs in 2022. Don’t expect them to finish that low in 2023, as they can reasonably improve in a number of different ways throughout the offseason.

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