Looking at all the teams ahead of the Guardians in the postseason race

It feels like we’ve been saying it for the better part of the past month, but the Guardians have their work cut out for them if they want to fight their way into this year’s postseason. 

Every time they take a step forward (like their five-game winning streak earlier in May or their series win over the Mariners last week), they seemingly take a step back. We’re currently in the midst of one of those swoons, as they dropped the first two games of their series against the Red Sox to once again fall under .500. 

But even with that, they still have a chance to make the postseason this year. Sure, it may be a 2.5% chance per Fangraphs, but it’s still a chance. 

Here’s what the Guardians need to do to get past the teams ahead of them in the postseason race. 

Note: All postseason odds are via FanGraphs and all records are as of the beginning of play on Wednesday.

Looking at all the teams ahead of the Guardians in the postseason race

Detroit Tigers (80-60)
10 1/2 games ahead of the Guardians in the American League Central
99.8% to make the postseason 

Last year the Tigers surprised all of baseball and made a magical run toward the postseason in September before losing to the Guardians in the American League Division Series.

This year, the Guardians are looking to follow that same path and hope that a strong final month gives them the push they need to surge in the postseason.

The Tigers are led by presumptive Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal alongside just enough offense to win games, but they're not a clear pick to win it all.

Their bullpen lacks a true shutdown option (though Kyle Finnegan has been nearly perfect since being acquired at the deadline) and their offense is a bit streakier than anyone in the Detroit metropolitan area would prefer. 

Still, they’ve played so well that they have a big cushion in the division. That said, the Guardians have a 0.2% chance of winning the division thanks to the fact they have six games remaining against the Tigers.

The Guardians will need to do a lot more winning before then if they want those games to matter, though. 

New York Yankees (77-61)
8 1/2 games ahead of the Guardians in the Wild Card race
99.5% to make the postseason, 73.5% to be a Wild Card team

Even if it seems like it’s all doom and gloom in the Bronx, the Yankees are a lock to make the postseason and are also in the thick of the race for the AL East crown. They entered play on Wednesday just 2 1/2 games back of the Blue Jays for the top spot in the division. 

But they also have their warts. 

Aaron Judge has posted an OPS of .916 in 25 games since returning from the injured list but has a batting average of just .250. Even if Giancarlo Stanton is looking more and more like the version of him that terrorized the Guardians during last year’s ALCS, their offense looks like it’s built on a house of cards. 

They close the season with five straight series against teams below .500, which means the Guardians will have even more of an uphill climb to try to take their Wild Card spot.

Boston Red Sox (78-62)
8 1/2 games ahead of the Guardians in the Wild Card race
98.2% to make the postseason, 85.9% to be a Wild Card team

Any chance the Guardians had to catch up to the Red Sox in the Wild Card race has likely gone by the wayside thanks to Cleveland dropping the first two games of their series against the Red Sox this week in demoralizing fashion. 

Not only did that rough showing confirm the Guardians won’t have the tie-breaker over the Red Sox, it also dropped the Guardians back under .500 while pushing the Red Sox further and further ahead in the Wild Card race. 

The Guardians will have one last chance to steal a game from the Red Sox on Wednesday, but this seems like another team that Cleveland has no chance of catching in the Wild Card race. 

Seattle Mariners (73-66)
4 games ahead of the Guardians in the Wild Card race
80.1% chance to make the postseason, 50% chance to be a Wild Card team 

The Guardians did a good job of getting back into the postseason hunt by taking two out of three from the Mariners at Progressive Field over the weekend, but it still wasn’t enough for them to earn the tiebreaker after the Mariners swept the Guardians in Seattle earlier this year. 

The Mariners followed up their series in Cleveland by dropping two in a row to the Rays, which has helped keep the Guardians postseason hopes alive despite the fact they’ve lost two in a row to the Red Sox. 

At a certain point, the Guardians will need to start winning if they want to capitalize on the Mariners’ struggles. 

The Mariners play just two teams with a winning record the rest of the way (the Astros and Dodgers), which is part of the reason why their postseason odds are so high despite their recent swoon. 

Texas Rangers (72-68)
2 1/2 games ahead of the Guardians in the Wild Card race
15.9% chance to make the postseason

A couple weeks ago, it looked like the Guardians had a chance to sweep the Rangers and send them into waiver wire purgatory. Instead, the Rangers swept the Guardians in a series that jump-started their season.

The Rangers have gone 6-2 since sweeping the Guardians and currently sit just 1 1/2 games behind the Mariners for the final Wild Card spot. 

That said, their next four series are against teams with winning records, and they close the year with a three-game series against the Guardians at Progressive Field. 

That always seemed like a big series, but there’s a chance it could end up dictating the American League’s final Wild Card spot.  

Kansas City Royals (72-68)
1 1/2 games ahead of the Guardians in the Wild Card race
9.4% chance to make the postseason

The Royals are also in the midst of a disappointing season after their surprise trip to the postseason last year, but they’ve been able to find enough of a groove to work their way back into the postseason picture. 

That said, they lost to the Angels on Tuesday, which is another loss that helped the Guardians tread water in the postseason race despite suffering a season straight loss. 

The Guardians have a four-game series against the Royals later this week that could end up making or breaking the rest of the season for both teams. 

The Royals offense has taken a huge step back this year (they have a wRC+ of 90 this season as a team), but their pitching staff has carried their weight (3.66 team ERA). They have some clear weaknesses — it’ll be on the Guardians to take advantage of them. 

Tampa Bay Rays (69-69)
1/2 game ahead of the Guardians in the Wild Card race
4.3% chance to make the postseason 

Last week, the Guardians delivered what looked to be a knockout blow for the Rays when they took two out of three against them at Progressive Field. But the Guardians have gone 2-3 since then while the Rays have won five in a row, which has helped push Tampa Bay ahead of them in the Wild Card standings. 

This race will likely be settled this weekend, as the Guardians are traveling to Tampa Bay for a four-game series against Cleveland starting this weekend.