Predicting which series Guardians must win to rise into 2025 postseason

Well, August is here and the Cleveland Guardians are in the thick of the postseason hunt. It may have been a bumpier ride than any of us were anticipating, but they’ve done just enough to be on the cusp of holding a Wild Card spot. 

And while that’s an encouraging sign, there’s still work that needs to be done. Last year, the Guardians won the American League Central with a record of 92-69, while the Tigers nabbed the final Wild Card spot with a record of 86-76. 

The Guardians enter play today with a 59-55 record, meaning they’d need to go 33-14 the rest of the way to keep up with their pace from last year or 27-21 to finish with the same record as last year’s Tigers — two records that seem achievable based on the Guardians' strong run of play of late.

Although every game will be important for the Guardians in their quest to make the postseason, there’s no denying that some series will be more important than others. 

Here’s a look at four of them. 

Predicting which series Guardians must win to rise into 2025 postseason

At Texas Rangers, Aug. 22-24

The Guardians will get their first look at the Rangers this season at a crucial juncture in the season, as both teams enter play today 1 1/2 games out of the American League’s final Wild Card spot. 

The Rangers are led by a strong pitching staff (that got even stronger at the trade deadline with the additions of Merrill Kelly, Phil Maton and Danny Coulombe), but their bats have started to wake up from their early season slumber. 

They just took two out of three from the struggling Yankees and have pushed their way back into the postseason picture after going 16-9 in July. 

The Guardians face off against four teams with losing records prior to their series against the Rangers, so they should still be in the thick of the Wild Card race by the time this series rolls around. Take two out of three, and the Guardians should be in the catbird seat. 

The Guardians also face off against the Rangers at home in their final series of the year, which could end up being just as important. 

Seattle Mariners, Aug. 29-31

While this series was always going to be important given it’s going to mark Josh Naylor’s return to Cleveland, it gained even more importance given the Wild Card standings, as the Mariners currently hold the AL's second Wild Card spot. 

The Mariners got much better at the trade deadline thanks to their additions of Naylor and Eugenio Suárez alongside their already stellar starting rotation and bullpen.

The Mariners swept the Guardians in the three-game series the teams played at T-Mobile Park earlier this year, so Cleveland will need to take all three if it wants to have a chance to win the tiebreaker.

Detroit Tigers, Sept. 16-18 (at Detroit), 23-25 (at Cleveland)

Last up we’ve got both of Cleveland’s series against the American League Central-leading Tigers. The Guardians have done well to cut 9 1/2 games off the Tigers’ lead over the past month, but they’ll need to probably win both of these series if they want to win the division (so long as the race hasn’t been decided by the time these games are played). 

The Tigers also elected to make some marginal upgrades at the trade deadline by adding old friend Paul Sewald along with starting pitcher Charlie Morton. Their offense is good, but it can tend to be streaky, which is how they dropped enough games to let the Guardians back into the hunt.

While the Guardians took three out of four from the Tigers when they faced off in early May, the Tigers took two out of three from the Guardians in July. 

At that point, it seemed like the race for the AL Central crown was done and dusted, but here we are. Both of these series are obvious must-wins, both for Cleveland’s quest toward the division crown but for the postseason as a whole.