Latest Baseball Savant stat shows Guardians quiet Kyle Manzardo advantage (and how Rhys Hoskins hasn’t been enough)

One of the beautiful things about being a baseball fan right now is the abundance of stats available for public consumption. Even if people have some understandable stat fatigue given how much weight some team’s decision makers give to analytics, there’s never been a better time to understand what’s happening on the field. 

We got even more evidence of that theme on Wednesday when the team at Baseball Savant unveiled a new Statcast metric that measures how good each first baseball is at receiving throws. 

While most throws are routine chest-high throws,  the stat measures how each first baseman handles off-target throws that require them to stretch and contort themselves to bring the ball in. 

And you didn’t need to look far to find some Guardians representation at the top of the list. More specifically, Kyle Manzardo, who has been worth +3 Receiving Outs Above Average this season, which is the fourth-best mark in baseball among first baseman. 

Even if Manzardo’s presence at the top of the list is an encouraging sign when it comes to his development, it’s still a bit of a surprise — both because Manzardo’s been in the minors for the past two weeks and because he’s been worth -5 Outs Above Average as a whole this season. 

But one thing that wasn’t surprising is that Rhys Hoskins graded out as a neutral receiving option (0 Outs Above Average), which fits into the theme of his rough season. 

Kyle Maznardo graded out as one of MLB's best receiving first baseman in new Statcast metric

Although Manzardo has some solid power, his defensive limitations have been evident in his advanced stats for most of his career. He mashed 27 home runs last season, but was only worth 1.2 fWAR because he was worth -7 Defensive Runs Saved and -3 Outs Above Average. 

He’s graded out as a better defender this season by measure of DRS (+3), but still rates as a below-average defender by measure of OAA. But it seems like his subpar OAA number comes from his lack of mobility in stopping balls, not from his ability to receive throws. 

That may not have been enough to help him keep his big league roster spot when the Guardians acquired Nathaniel Lowe at the trade deadline, but it shows one strength that he has that was easy to overlook because of his negative defensive numbers.

Speaking of Lowe, he’s been worth +1 Receiving Out Above Average since joining the Guardians, and we saw exactly why that is last week when he closed out the Guardians’ win over the Tigers with a slick pick on a low throw from Brayan Rocchio. 

That leads us back to Hoskins, who graded as middle of the pack and was been among one of MLB’s worst first baseman at corralling scoops before he hit the injured list earlier this week.

The Guardians filled his spot on the roster with Fry, who has been worth -1 Receiving Outs Above Average, which makes sense since he's not a first baseman by trade.

For now the Guardians’ first base tandem consists of Fry and Lowe now that Manzardo has taken his glove and bat down I-71 to Triple-A Columbus while Hoskins is on the injured list.

But it shouldn’t take long for Manzardo to improve on those strong receiving numbers whenever he ends up back with the Guardians’ big league club. 

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