Guardians should consider postseason role change for Tanner Bibee after 2026 struggles

On March 22, 2025, Tanner Bibee signed a five-year extension with the Cleveland Guardians that knocked his remaining arbitration years along with a couple years of free agency. 

The extension made sense at the time, as Bibee was coming off two solid seasons to start his career and was arguably the ace of the Guardians'. Shane Bieber was still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and Bibee had just come off of an impressive postseason for a Guardians team that made it all the way to the ALCS.

Since then, Bibee has provided a mixed bag of results. He makes his starts (31+ n each of the last three seasons), providing a level of stability that in and of itself justifies the extension. However, his ERA rose to 4.24 in 2025 and currently sits at 4.35.

While wins and losses are now an ancient stat when assessing one’s pitching acumen, Bibee’s 12-11 record last season was meh, and he leads the American League in losses this season (15). Sure, part of this is due to an unbelievable lack of run support during the first half of this season, but it can't all be chalked up to that.

The title of Guardians ace belongs to Parker Messick, who has made the most starts for a Cleveland rookie since C.C. Sabathia in 2001 (thank you to the ESPN broadcast on Wednesday for mentioning this tidbit.)

Messick will be followed by Gavin Williams and likely Foster Griffin in a three-game Wild Card series or best-of-five ALDS. 

Tanner Bibee could pitch in a new role in the postseason

The Guardians seemingly sent a message to both the team and its fan base as to who the top end of their rotation will feature in the postseason by re-shuffling the rotation heading into last week's White Sox series.

Bibee was pushed up a day to wrap up the Twins series, while Williams, Messick and Griffin started in the three games against the White Sox.

This strategy worked, as the Guardians took two of three against Chicago (ironically, the game lost was started by Williams.)

That set up Bibee to make two starts the rest of the way; his first was a rough start against the Athletics on Saturday, while his final one will come against the Royals in the last series of the regular season.

It should be noted, that could be subject to change depending on how the standings shake out and whether a do-or-die scenario presents itself.

Fortunately for Bibee, he will miss the Red Sox series, which is the best remaining lineup the Guardians will face.

That didn't help him against the Athletics, however, as the A's shelled him for six runs on 12 hits in 4 2/3 innings. Manager Stephen Vogt tried his hardest to keep him in there for five innings so he could get the win, but it didn't work.

As it stands, Bibee is lined up to pitch the first game of the series against the Royals, which will have huge implications.

In an ideal scenario, the Guardians would clinch their postseason berth earlier in the week and would be able to adjust their pitching staff that series for October. Bibee is crucial to that idea. Not only are the games he will start games the Guardians need to win, they are also games they should win.

Should we assume all goes well and the Guardians find themselves in the dance, what shall happen to Bibee then?

My guess, which is a just that — a guess, is as stated previously: In a three-or-five-game series, the Guardians will not deploy Bibee as a starter.

What does that mean? 

Instead, he could find himself in a very pivotal role as a bridge from the starter to the backend of the bullpen, mending the gap that has been a bit shaky from Guardians middle relievers.

No, Bibee has not been asked to do this previously in his career, but we have seen many teams utilize their fourth and fifth starters in this manner during the postseason. A role like this may actually be a blessing in disguise.

Often, when a pitcher is moved into this role, even if only for a postseason run, he cuts down on the number of pitches he uses. Bibee gets shelled on his four-seam fastball and sinker (.270 and .289 batting average against, respectively.), but has a batting average against of .204 or less on his cutter, curveball and changeup.

Bibee utilizes a combination of those three pitches in more than half of the pitches he's thrown, therefore, an increase of their usage would not be a drastic change.

Those pitches can also tunnel off one another and induce both strikeouts and groundouts in high leverage situations.

If the Guardians were to find themselves in the ALCS or World Series, I am sure Bibee would make a start at some point, though it would likely come on a short leash. The same philosophy of limiting pitch types thrown could still work if he were to pitch only two times around the order.

Certainly, this is all hypothetical, and perhaps I am wrong about Bibee moving to the ‘pen in a shortened series. He has had some success in the postseason in the past.

Given how the season has played out, it's only fair to assume that Guardians are considering some kind of role change for Bibee.

But that's a problem for next week; the Guardains still have games to play and Bibee is still a key part of their rotation.

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