Guardians' desire to be patient could hurt them at the trade deadline

The 40-45 Cleveland Guardians have rapidly fallen out of AL Central contention, though the Wild Card team is still somehow just four games back in the Wild Card standings.

Obviously, they'll need to start playing a better brand of baseball in July to justify any big trade deadline acquisitions by Chris Antonetti and company.

However, in what is quickly appearing to be a very favorably seller's market, the Guardians would be wise to choose their path sooner rather than later.

Fluctuating trade deadline market will only hurt Guardians' patient plan

When speaking to reporters last weekend, Antonetti made it clear that he believes the trade market will be slow to develop as the large swath of fringe contenders try to sort out their place in the MLB hierarchy.

"If past years are indicative of what to expect this year, we would probably expect it to be a later-developing deadline because there are so many teams that remain in contention at this point,” the Guardians' president of baseball operations told reporters.

So Antonetti has publicly made it clear Cleveland will wait to complete any deals ahead of the trade deadline at the end of the month.

Is it a bad strategy?

Antonetti's point — that a huge number of teams won't define themselves as buyers or sellers until much closer to the deadline — rings true, though it's doesn't excuse Cleveland's own inaction.

The following teams are the surefire buyers on this year's market: the Tigers, Astros, Yankees, Blue Jays, Rays, Dodgers, Cubs, Phillies, Brewers, Mets, Padres and Giants. You could also make a case for the Cardinals and Mariners, given their recent runs of success.

The following teams are surefire sellers on this year's market: the Orioles, Athletics, White Sox, Marlins, Pirates, Nationals, and Rockies.

That's nearly half the league (14 teams) that views themselves as buyers, compared to just seven sellers. That means the Guardians are one of nine teams that are existing in a weird middle ground.

Those numbers are why it's so crucial for the Guardians to pick their lane as soon as possible. If they fancy themselves as buyers, it'd behoove them to jump ahead of the market — especially for one of the few impact bats available — to avoid getting into an expensive bidding war for players with minimal team control.

If they instead opt to be sellers, they could flood the trade market with impressive, market-altering assets like Carlos Santana, Lane Thomas, Shane Bieber, and yes, even Emmanuel Clase. They could be the ones inciting a bidding war, especially if they enter the market early enough to get a plethora of teams interested.

As a team hovering around .500 in a division with only one clear elite, it's intuitive to want to wait things out as long as possible to choose the right direction for the second half of the season.

The longer the Guardians wait, though, the harder it's going to be to have a successful trade deadline.