Former Guardians ace could benefit from shift in Hall of Fame voting mentality

A few weeks have gone by since the Baseball Writers Association of America inducted center fielders Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones into the National Baseball Hall of Fame, with Jeff Kent elected via a veterans committee.

While some Cleveland fans have lamented Kenny Lofton’s one-and-done stint on the ballot in 2013, there’s a more recent Cleveland star who has a compelling case for induction in Corey Kluber.

Today’s piece isn’t to make the case for or against Kluber’s eventual induction or not. The point will be presenting the recent trends, facts and numbers to let you decide for yourselves.

Former Guardians pitcher Corey Kluber presents an intriguing Hall of Fame case

The five-year peak

Why is the focus on the five-year peak so important to a potential case for Kluber? For dominant players like David Wright, Felix Hernández, Dustin Pedroia and others who were in the upper echelon before their bodies turned against them or, in the case of Pedroia, some other injury altered the end of their playing day trajectories.

We may be seeing a slight shift toward rewarding peak dominance when it comes to multi-time Cy Young winners, MVPs and MVP candidates, among others without resumes that typically define what we once knew as a Hall of Fame player.

For Kluber’s peak years, the obvious selection is his run from 2014 to 2018. He won the Cy Young twice, finished in the Top 3 two more times and one ninth-place finish in 2015. In both of his 2014 and 2017 Cy Young seasons and dominant 2016, Kluber also earned down-ballot MVP support.

The numbers!

We’re getting there. We had to set the table for what comes next. Over the five-year peak, Kluber posted 31.9 bWAR, including four seasons with 18-or-more victories.

While he only won nine games in 2015, he instead led the league with four complete games that year.

Out of his 17 complete games in Cleveland, he posted three (with one shutout) in 2014, three complete games (two shutouts in 2015) and five and three more complete games in 2017 and 2018. He also led the league in shutouts in both of those seasons with two and one, respectively.

At his best, Kluber averaged 222 strikeouts or more over each of those five years, with a high-water mark of 269 strikeouts in 2014 over 235 2/3 innings pitched.

Kluber also tossed 200 frames every one of those five years, with a low-mark of 203 2/3 in 2017.

Over that same span, he was nearly 8 bWAR up on Justin Verlander while dominating the field of other Cy Young winners such as Hernández, Rick Porcello and Dallas Keuchel.

Recent history

This is where there’s an interesting debate. Only Logan Webb has pitched 200 innings or more in the last three consecutive seasons and, when you compare that tally and qualified pitchers who tossed 200-plus frames, only Webb’s 2023 and Sandy Alcantara's 2022 seasons would top Kluber’s third-worst total over his five year run of dominance (215 innings, which he achieved in 2016 and ‘18).

Kluber’s innings count from the 2014-16 seasons and 2018 campaign would have led the majors in 2021, 2024 and 2025, and a mere inning of moundwork behind Logan Webb’s 2023 total of 216.

Alcantara’s the only pitcher with more than three complete games over the past five completed seasons (six in 2022). No player has topped more than three the past two years.

Kluber’s prime would still be among the best in the league today, but his résumé still seems a little light even with an ERA title, three All-Star nods and a no-hitter thrown as a member of the New York Yankees.

The future

The milestones of 300 wins, 3,000 career strikeouts and other automatic benchmarks are going to be unicorns – nearly impossible to achieve in the modern baseball era as we head into 2026.

If you stuck through all the numbers crunching and nostalgia of pitchers of years past, this is where I pass the question off to you. The 2029 Ballot – which is the earliest Kluber would debut for BBWAA voting – will almost assuredly include Miguel Cabrera, Zack Greinke, Joey Votto and Adam Wainwright, among others.

So how will the voters handle it? Kluber's absolutely dominant peak doesn't have a ton of comps, but he certainly they should merit consideration for induction. Or at least, that’s the case I’ve laid out for the debate here.

Now it’s on you all to decide. And let me tell you – this will be a spirited debate among baseball fans everywhere.