Breaking down the Guardians' potential American League Division Series opponents

The Guardians are not only back in the dance, but clinched their third straight AL Central division title and have a bye in the Wild Card round.

This is a perfect scenario for a team that leans on its pitching, as Parker Messick and Gavin Williams will be able to start four of five games in the ALDS on normal rest. 

On their side of the bracket are the White Sox (84-78), who finished a game back of the Guardians in the Central, and the Houston Astros (81-81) who finished in first place to win a pedestrian American League West. The Wild Card Series will be played in Houston.

The Guardians are fortunate to play in this “bracket-style” era, as seeding does not reset each round so they'd just have to play one of the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays in the ALCS.

Of course, a favorable path guarantees nothing and MLB’s postseason is among the more random in sports. Things can change in an instant.

Still, the Guardians earned the luxury of a few days off and a chance to set their pitching staff. Who then, should the Guardians want to play? The Astros or White Sox?

There is not a glaringly obvious answer, so let’s break down the facets of each team.

The Astros and White Sox both could be tough matchups for the Guardians in the ALDS

Offense

Would you believe me if I told you the Houston Astros led all of Major League Baseball in home runs this season?

A big reason for that is Yordan Alvarez, the overwhelming favorite to win AL MVP and driving force in Houston’s lineup.

Alvarez had a remarkable season, as he flirted with the Triple Crown hitting .316 with 42 home runs and 106 RBIs.

He is certainly a force to be reckoned with, which was shown in how teams pitched him. Alvarez led the league with 109 walks, and the Guardians are going to need to pitch around him if Houston makes it out of the Wild Card Series.

There are also a few unsung heroes in Houston’s lineup who could be major threats.

Christian Walker hit 29 home runs this season, followed by Isaac Paredes (25). Jeremy Peña and Cam Smith have shown spurts, while former Guardians prospect Yanier Diaz is also one of the sport's better backstops.

Where the lineup struggles is their ability to get on base. But, as we know, home runs can play in October.

As for the White Sox, their power plays big, too. Unlike the Astros, however, there is not the looming threat of a middle-of-the-order hitter who can do everything. Rather, it is a collection of guys who have different niches.

Beginning with the long ball threats, the White Sox have three hitters with over 30 home runs. Munetaka Murakami, whom any of the other 29 clubs could have signed last offseason, leads the bunch with 35 home runs despite missing more than a month of games due to injury. 

Miguel Vargas follows with 33 of his own. Rounding out the three, is center-piece Colson Montgomery, who has 31 to his name.

The White Sox also have table-setters throughout the lineup in Sam Antonacci and Chase Meidroth, who both can get on base and record 2 steals.

Speaking of the stolen base, neither team is elite but Chicago hold the edge as they have nearly double (93) than Houston (50).

A compelling case can be made for either team as to who has the advantage offensively. Sure, the Astros have a bit more experience, but I would argue the White Sox have a more well-rounded lineup top to bottom.

Since the All-Star break, the Sox are first in the American League in runs scored while Houston is 16th. Home runs mean something the postseason, and both teams can rack those up.

Advantage: White Sox

Starting Pitching

Here is a category where the Guardians hold a decisive advantage over both teams.

To their credit, the White Sox's rotation held up this season, though at times it was duct taped together by openers.

The Luis Castillo trade has been a disaster and he's done for good thanks to an IL placement.

On the positive side, Sean Burke has pitched exceptionally for the White Sox to the tune of a 3.34 ERA and 185 strikeouts in 172 1/3 innings. Anthony Kay and Davis Martin have had ups and downs, but been solid enough to provide the Sox with 31 and 28 starts, respectively. 

Erick Fedde has been above average with an ERA+ of 110 and a 1.44 ERA in his last seven outings. It should be noted, a handful of those games saw Fedde follow an opener.

The Astros, on the other hand, have a clear cut ace in Hunter Brown, who is one of the best pitchers in the American League when right.

Brown has a 3.19 ERA this season in 20 starts, with 124 strikeouts in 107 1/3 innings.

The depth wears pretty thin in the Astros starting rotation after Brown, though Brown and Peter Lambert are the only ones to pitch 100+ innings this season.

If this series goes to three games, it is reasonable to think Game 3 would be a full bullpen game for the Astros.

Chicago has more rotational depth (narrowly) and the Astros have the best starting pitcher. 

Edge: Even 

Bullpen

Now, here we are to perhaps the category that swings the postseason the most.

As so many postseason games come down to a run or two, a disastrous outing from one reliever can be the difference in a series.

The Astros have one of the best closers in baseball in Josh Hader, though he mostly works as a one inning reliever.

After Hader, the Astros have a combination of well-established relievers and those who are lesser known but have had a solid campaign.

Take Bryan Abreu, who has had success in the past, but been up and down this year. His ERA is 3.73, but he has a 1.82 ERA in his last 30 appearances.

Steven Okert and AJ Blubaugh have both been impressive in different ways. Blubaugh can be a multi-inning reliever, and Okert follows the more traditional reliever route,.

The White Sox have spent the season without a solidified closer. In fact, their season saves leader is Seranthony Domínguez, who was traded to the Mariners at the deadline.

Grant Taylor, who owns an impressive 2.25 ERA, is the current team leader in saves with ten, though he also has seven blown saves.

Aside from the final three outs, the Sox have some respectable bullpen pieces whether it be Sean Newcomb or Jordan Hicks.

The Astros relievers seem to have more structured roles, which can be great for guys to prep coming into a game The White Sox, while having a handful of solid relievers, do not have a “bullpen ace” as the Astros do in Hader.

Advantage: Astros

I doubt it would shock anyone, much less the fans of either team, if this series sees all three games played.

So again, who should the Guardians want to play?

The Guardians thrive on putting the ball in play even if their the low batting average and on base percentage may suggest otherwise. They steal bags, bunt, and move runners over to score runs.

Because of that, I think the White Sox are the team the Guardians would match up better against since the Astros have a legitimate chance to knock Cleveland out at any point.

Allow me to elaborate.

I know it may seem counter intuitive, as the White Sox have three players with over 30 home runs to the Astros one in Alvarez.

While the Guardians would be able to pitch around Alvarez, there'd be at least one point where they'd have to pitch to him and there's no player I'd want the Guardians face in a clutch situation less than Alvarez.

I also have more faith in the Astros bullpen than the White Sox's The Guardians tend to mount a lot of late inning comebacks, and it would be harder to do so against Houston and Hader.

My fear with both teams is the long ball, and you can’t defend a home run. The Guardians will have to scrap to win the ALDS and their pitching and timely offense are both reasons they have a great shot to do so.

But that's a problem for the weekend. For now, we get to enjoy watching the Wild Card teams duke it out and hopefully the White Sox and Astros wear each other out.

Go White Sox! (I think?)

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