For most of the past month, the Cleveland Guardians have been looking up at multiple teams in their race toward a Wild Card spot. Sure, they’ve had ebbs and flows that have changed things a little bit, but a majority of their time sticking around the Wild Card picture has been with multiple teams in front of them.
That’s not the case right now. On Monday, the Guardians picked up a huge 10-2 win over the Royals where starter Slade Cecconi carried a no-hitter into the eighth inning. And while that win was a huge start for Cecconi, it also helped push the Guardians ahead of the Royals in the American League Wild Card standings.
The Guardians are still 2 1/2 games behind the Mariners for the final American League Wild Card spot, but now only have the Texas Rangers (who are 1 1/2 games behind the Mariners) in front of them. The Royals are now three games back.
AL Wild Card Standings: Guardians clear major hurdle in Royals opener
All of that is contingent on how the Guardians do tonight. While it would be easier to pencil wins in if they were playing the Rockies every game, playing the teams ahead of them in the Wild Card race adds to the boom or bust factor.
Sure, their season may be sunk if they drop their next three games against the Royals, but the same is also true if they sweep Kansas City.
And they got a head start on doing that on Monday in a game where Cecconi looked as good as he’s been all year and Cleveland’s offense got out a season’s worth of frustrations in one game.
And, in turn, they’ve raised their postseason odds to 8%, per Fangraphs. Still a slim chance, but better than the 2.1% odds they were faced with last week.
The biggest thing going in their favor is that their postseason fate is right in front of them. They still have six games left against the Tigers (who lead the Guardians by 8 1/2 games in the AL Central) along with a three-games series against the Rangers.
Couple that with weekend series against the lowly White Sox and slumping Twins, and they have just enough games against bottom-feeders that could help them capitalize on wins over the teams ahead of them in the postseason chase.
The Mariners still have two games left against the Cardinals (who they beat on Monday) before taking on the Angels in a four-game series over the weekend, while the Tigers have a three-game series against the Yankees, who have the AL’s top Wild Card spot.
The Rangers have two games remaining against the Brewers before taking on the Mets.
Joey Cantillo will get the start for the Guardians tonight after a strong turn through the rotation his last time out, while the Royals will counter with Noah Cameron, who has a 3.03 ERA on the year but has a 5.40 ER across his last four starts.