Rule 5 draft: Will another team select outfielder Oscar Gonzalez?

When the Cleveland Guardians updated their 40-man roster a week or so ago, fans were surprised to see that outfielder Oscar Gonzalez didn’t make the cut. After all, the 23-year-old hit .293/.329/.542 with 31 home runs, 24 doubles, and 83 RBIs in 478 at-bats across Double-A Akron and Triple-A Columbus last season.

Given that Gonzalez is Rule 5-eligible, it seemed likely the Guardians would put him on the 40-man to protect him from being poached by another team. but now, he’ll be available in December to any team looking for some serious pop in its outfield.

So what’s up? Why are the Guardians willing to roll the dice on Gonzalez being scooped up to play elsewhere?

Here’s the big reason: In the Rule 5 draft, a selected player must be on his new team’s active roster for the entire season, or else be waived and eventually offered back to his original organization. This is why you don’t typically see prospects just flying off the Rule 5 shelves; it has to be the exact right fit and another team has to be really confident a player is ready to contribute in some capacity right away.

This is a lot easier to accomplish on the pitching side, where a player can more or less be stashed away without much trouble. But when it comes to the offense, teams often need all of the active roster spots available to them over the course of the season.

And despite his prodigious power in 2021, Gonzalez isn’t ready for the majors.

The biggest indicators are his walk and strikeout totals. He struck out 112 times in 478 at-bats last season, which for a power hitter these days, is a number most people have come to expect. But he only walked 22 times last year; in fact, he’s only walked a total of 82 times in his entire minor-league career spanning six seasons and 2,062 at-bats.

In the majors, that’s going to be a much, much harder feat to accomplish. Though the batting average has always been there for Gonzalez, he’s going to need more time in Triple-A to prove he can handle the type of pitching he’d see at the highest level. The Guardians are banking on other teams feeling the same way; it would be tough to be that sure about him after only 290 Triple-A at-bats.

There’s still a good chance a fully rebuilding team will be willing to give Gonzalez a shot in the majors; a desperate team like, say, the Pirates or Diamondbacks really has nothing to lose, so why not? But if no one selects Gonzalez, he’ll return to Columbus in 2022 and will try to force the Guardians’ hand by replicating the season that put him on everyone’s radar and currently has fans foaming at the mouth.

Steve DiMatteo is the host of the California Penal League Podcast, which you can find on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts.