Cleveland Indians: Rule 5 Draft roster decisions as deadline approaches

The deadline to protect players from the 2020 Rule 5 Draft is tomorrow and here’s a look at who the Cleveland Indians could add to their roster.

Like all 30 teams, the Cleveland Indians will be looking to add a couple players to their roster ahead of the 2020 Rule 5 Draft and the deadline to protect players is tomorrow. There are a couple that seem like no-brainer adds and a few questionable adds. Unlike some years though, there isn’t much of a 40-man crunch as the roster is currently at just 35 players.

The Indians also added a player I thought could have been protected before the draft during the season in Kyle Nelson, thus reducing the number of adds I’d expect to see this week. Here’s a dive into the players that are certain to be added, some that are on the fence, and some longshots.

The Lock

Nolan Jones – 3B/OF

I don’t like to speak in absolutes with things like the Rule 5 Draft, but here I can say with 100% certainty that Nolan Jones will be added to the 40-man roster. Many, if not all, have him as the top prospect in the Cleveland Indians’ system, and he’s already been at Double-A during the 2019 season and was at the Tribe’s alternate site during the crazy 2020 season.

Had the 2020 minor league season not been cancelled and we’d have had a normal 162-game Major League season I think there was a very real chance we would have seen Jones in Cleveland already. He almost certainly would have been at least to Triple-A at some point after hitting .253/.370/.466 with a 147 wRC+ at Akron in 2019.

He’s been working on some outfield this offseason already, a sign the Indians will be looking to get him to the big league level fast as third base is currently blocked by some guy named Jose Ramirez. The Indians are ready for Jones in Cleveland, only question is how soon it happens.

Odds of being added: 100%

The Near Certainty

Gabriel Arias – SS

Gabriel Arias is a guy I nearly put in the “lock” category with Nolan Jones as he’s been on some top 100 prospect lists and was one of the biggest pieces the Tribe got in the Mike Clevinger trade this summer. There’s really no logical reason for him to be left off. He’s a great defender at shortstop and by some accounts could be big league ready as soon as 2022 as a potential Francisco Lindor replacement.

The one knock on him for a while was the bat lacked far behind the glove; however, in 2019 he had a breakout at the plate, batting .302/.339/.470 and 17 home runs at Advanced-A. He still doesn’t walk much and losing 2020 definitely couldn’t have been good for the development but the glove is something a team could stash on the bench as a utility player now and worry about the bat developing later.

Odds of being added: 99.9% 

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The Good Bet

Eli Morgan – RHP

I’ve seen a lot of people putting Eli Morgan down as a lock to be added but for me, I think he’s a step below that level of certainty. That said, while I’m not a betting man myself, if I was I’d probably put a (small) wager on Morgan being on the Tribe’s 40-man roster come the weekend. His status in the Tribe’s prospect ranks varies a lot depending who you ask. Baseball America left him off their top 30 list this past winter though I know others like him more.

He put up some good numbers at Double-A Akron in 2019, posting a 3.79 ERA and 3.75 FIP in just over 100 innings and 18 starts. He’s not the type of guy that’s going to “wow” you with his stuff but then again neither were guys like Shane Bieber or Aaron Civale when they were at the levels he was at.

Morgan can rake up some strikeouts while limiting walks. He’s the type of pitcher the Tribe has been great at molding into better starters than people ever dreamed of. I have a feeling the Indians are higher on him than most prospect gurus.

Odds of being added: 75%

The Longshots

Will Benson – OF
Ka’ai Tom – OF
Jose Fermin – INF

I don’t expect any of these players to be added but Will Benson is a former first-round pick so perhaps he gets some consideration. He’s an athletic outfielder that has an intriguing power/speed package, but has yet to put it all together.. He had a great season at Lake County in 2019, but then struggled when he moved up to Advanced-A Lynchburg. Strikeouts remain a huge issue and why I can’t see him being added or taken.

Ka’ai Tom is a player I’ve liked for a number of years and had at the back of my top 30 prospect list a few times. He screams fourth outfielder, but honestly so what? He can do a bit of everything and, in my opinion, can bring you as much as Greg Allen ever did. Given how bad the Tribe’s outfield has been it’s a shame he never has gotten a look, but he was eligible for the draft last year and no team took him. Odds are that happens again.

Jose Fermin gets lost in the plethora of infielders the Tribe has, but he’s maybe my favorite under-the-radar prospect. Not known for his bat, he hit very well in both 2018 and 2019 posting a 134 and 123 wRC+, respectively. He reached Lake County in 2019 and hit .293/.374/.379. He’s not going to give you any power, but did steal 28 bases. He can play either middle infield spot as well. A utility infielder probably but he feels like he could be a decent one.

Odds of any being added: <5%

Surprises and conclusions

Every so often the Cleveland Indians throw us a curveball and add someone that no one really expected. They did it with Danny Salazar nearly a decade ago and have done it with guys like Dylan Baker, Mejia, and Stamets more recently. So just because I didn’t mention a guy above doesn’t not mean they can’t or won’t be added, I just don’t think the odds are that high it happens…but I can be (and often am) wrong.

Relievers are tough to gauge with respect to the Rule 5 Draft. Some teams could see something in a player that others don’t and either protect him or leave him at risk and see him taken. The Indians haven’t been as big on adding strictly relievers of late though, opting more for the starting pitcher types like Mejia and Sam Hentges, guys who could move to the pen if needed.

Ultimately though I think the Indians add just three guys: Jones, Arias, and Morgan. Vargas is a guy I think the Indians take a gamble on and leave off though part of me hopes I’m wrong. I would love to see a guy like Clement or even Fermin/Tom added too, but I’m not getting my hopes up.

So who do you want/expect to see added? Did I leave off an obvious candidate? Let us know in the comments below.