Cleveland Indians: Is 2019 shaping up like 2016?

The dominant stories facing the 2019 Cleveland Indians are eerily similar to those they dealt with in 2016. How could the questions be answered this time?

In 2017, the Cleveland Indians roared on all cylinders to a 102-win season, decidedly earning home field advantage in the American League playoffs. Their 2018 campaign ended with another massive advantage in the AL Central standings, though that team admittedly never looked anywhere near as dangerous as the previous iteration.

The 2016 season was the last time the Indians faced any real regular-season adversity; they dealt with a maelstrom of injuries to key players, and it wasn’t until the Detroit Tigers began to falter down the stretch that the Tribe was able to pull away with the division.

Aside from the looming uphill climb to overtake the Twins atop the Central (as opposed to being in first place), the 2019 chapter of Cleveland’s quest for a championship is shaping up in many of the same ways as that fateful run three years ago.

Crippling injuries? Check. A division still up for grabs with an adversary that won’t go away? Check. At least a half-dozen unknowns that would cast doubt on the Tribe’s chances to win a World Series if they do get to October? Check.

We remember what happened then. We remember the multitudes of questions, and how they were answered. And we remember that it all almost worked out in the end. Here’s how the 2019 Indians mirror the 2016 club, and how many of those same questions could be answered this year.

An Emaciated Rotation

Some variation of the following phrase must have been written at least a couple thousand times by now, including by me: The Indians entered the 2016 postseason without two of their top three starting pitchers, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar.

With Corey Kluber’s recent oblique injury, it’s looking like a similar fate awaits the Tribe’s starting rotation this season. At best, they get Kluber back at the very end of the season with minimal–if any–time for him to get back into form.

Moreover, Trevor Bauer is gone, and though Carrasco looks set to return in a relief role in the near future, that leaves the Indians with two pitchers from their Opening Day rotation heading into the playoffs. The glass-half-full perspective is that Shane Bieber and Mike Clevinger are both capable of doing what Kluber did in 2016.

The Indians rode their ace, asking Bauer and Josh Tomlin to keep games close in order to give the bullpen a chance. Both Bieber and Clevinger are more reliable now than the ’16 version of Bauer, but who becomes 2019’s Josh Tomlin?

Betsided

Adam Plutko’s contact rates allowed to opposing hitters are absolutely terrifying in a playoff setting, but it could be him. Plutko is the only remaining available starter with multiple professional seasons (including minors) of at least 150 innings.

Zach Plesac has already surpassed his previous career high of 144.2 in 2018, while Aaron Civale is on pace to soar past his own marks of 107.2 and 106.1, respectively, in the last two seasons. Like it or not, workload management is a high priority among front offices when it comes to young pitchers.

Plutko’s arm has the established track record of holding up over a full season’s worth of innings, and for that reason, he could be the guy the Indians ask to give them five in a playoff game without letting things get out of hand–a tall task for a pitcher with a 48.2% fly ball rate.

If Civale in particular keeps pitching like he has for the next month, however, it’s going to be extremely difficult to justify passing on him as the third starter in a Kluber-less playoff rotation. Civale is the only one of the three with a strikeout rate above 20%, and his 2.23 FIP is significantly lower than Plesac’s or Plutko’s.

One or both of Civale and Plesac could be called upon to provide an emergency Ryan Merritt-like outing, if nothing else.

Comparing the Lineups

Cleveland’s injuries were, of course, not limited to Carrasco or Salazar three years ago. Yan Gomes and Michael Brantley were out as well, leaving the Indians without their starting catcher and a top-of-the-order left-handed bat. Fast-forward to present day, and Jose Ramirez is the devastating position player casualty.

After undergoing surgery for a broken bone in his hand on Monday, it’s incredibly hard to imagine the Indians third baseman returning to full strength before October. If the Indians make it that far, they’re most likely going to have to get through at least one round without him.

With this in mind, Ramirez is regrettably this year’s version of Brantley and Gomes. But what about the guys still in the lineup?

Next Man Up

With any injury like Ramirez’s, someone–or some collection of someones–must step into a new role and come through when it counts. In 2016, Roberto Perez came up huge for the Tribe in Gomes’s absence with three postseason home runs, including two in Game 1 of the World Series.

Coco Crisp, Brandon Guyer, and the legendary Rajai Davis all played a part in filling the outfield void left by Brantley.

FanSided

At third base in 2019, it’s going to come down to Yu Chang and Mike Freeman. Chang is a rookie, while Freeman is a 32-year-old who never recorded more than 66 MLB plate appearances in a single season prior to this year. Whether it’s one or both of them who steps up without Ramirez, it figures to be an inspiring story.

Party at Santana’s

Mike Napoli was not the best player on the 2016 Indians, so comparing Carlos Santana to him in that regard is unfair. They are similar, however, in that each one served (or serves) as a stabilizing force and a calming veteran presence in the middle of the lineup.

Additionally, Napoli was a one-year signing for the Tribe who injected some extra pep into the clubhouse. The Indians very much lacked that buzz in 2018, which, coincidentally, is the one year Santana played elsewhere.

That buzz has undeniably returned with the longtime first baseman, and enough cannot be said about his all-around value to a baseball team in a playoff fight.

A Better, Badder Francisco Lindor

Francisco Lindor is this year’s… Francisco Lindor. As he goes, so do the Indians.

Lindor batted in the three-hole for the Indians three years ago. That’s a funny thing to remember, because usually that spot in the order is reserved for a formidable home run threat, which Lindor wasn’t at the time.

Now he hits in the leadoff spot, and is within shouting distance of his third straight 30-homer season despite missing the first month of 2019. Lindor can’t be compared to anyone but himself, but it’s pretty impressive that his 4.0-fWAR 2016 was probably the very floor of his potential.

The Unsung Heroes

In addition to qualifying as “next men up,” the likes of Davis, Crisp, Guyer, and Perez also emerged as unsung heroes in 2016.

Crisp blasted a home run over the Green Monster in Game 3 of the ALDS. Perez set the tone with two bombs in the World Series. Guyer laced an RBI double off of Aroldis Chapman in Game 7, setting up Davis to provide arguably the greatest moment in the last 70-plus years of Indians baseball.

No matter how productive a team’s stars are, nobody gets through the October gauntlet without moments like those from their role players. In 2019, these moments will need to come from Jason Kipnis, Oscar Mercado, Tyler Naquin, Greg Allen, and Perez (again).

Naturally, the Indians have to make the playoffs in order for any of these potential stories to manifest themselves again. At the moment, there are plenty out there who don’t believe they can overcome what’s in front of them–whether that be injuries or the Minnesota Twins, or both.

But then again, nobody seemed to believe they could come within a run of pulling off the unthinkable in 2016, either.