Cleveland Indians: Evaluating Jason Kipnis’ future in Cleveland

The future of Jason Kipnis as a member of the Cleveland Indians has plenty of uncertainty as we enter the final stages of the 2017 season.

As the Cleveland Indians roll into the heart of September, they really have it rolling. Winners of 12 straight games led by the league’s most dominant second half pitching staff, the Tribe have put their foot down as favorites in the AL come October.

The roster, with September expansion, is clicking on all cylinders. The starting rotation goes six deep, and the bullpen, even without Andrew Miller, remains near the top in every statistical category of importance.

The outfield has gotten a boost with the returns of Lonnie Chisenhall and Abraham Almonte, and rookie Greg Allen provides important speed and defense off the bench. Smooth sailing, it seems, to dominate the calendar for the AL’s easiest remaining schedule.

It’s fairly easy to see the Indians coasting to the finish line and perhaps catching the Astros. If not, they will at least be comfortable in the two seed – the same as last year. The bigger issue at hand here as we approach late September is what the Indians do if they arrive at a situation that deems Jason Kipnis able to play at 100 percent again.

It’s easy to see the Indians slotting Michael Brantley back into the lineup should he return to full health – although that seems less likely with each passing day. The trouble comes with Jason Kipnis, in my opinion. The Indians would be wise to stick with Giovanny Urshella at third base upon Kipnis’ return, and even further look to move him come the offseason.

The issue of 2017 is relatively clear. Even if Jason Kipnis makes a healthy return, he can’t be counted on as a regular starter. That recurring hamstring strain has been too bothersome to slot in as the everyday secondnd baseman come October. His bat will be served best off the bench with an occasional spot start.

Evaluating the future is necessary here – even though I hate doing so in the midst of such a wonderful season, but alas. I’ll start out by saying this: Jason Kipnis will always be one of my favorite Indians. What he has been able to do since 2011 has been nothing short of miraculous.

He carried this organization through some rough seasons as its unsung leader while always being under the radar. Names have come and gone since his 2011 debut, but he has remained the constant.

Kipnis’ 2016 season carried an All-Star-level line and he left many Tribe fans with some unforgettable playoff and World Series moments. Who can forget the bomb in Chicago:

https://twitter.com/MusikFan4Life/status/792569371742855170

Or the passed ball miracle from second:

I pride myself in being the first to defend him, because I think he has earned that here. Fans can be prisoners of the moment, and with Gio’s regular defensive gems, I get it.

The issue here is the bat. Kipnis could always lay waste to his sub-standard defense if his bat carried his value, and it usually has. He has carried an fWAR of greater than 4.5 in three separate seasons since 2013. He has done his fair share of work for this organization and he was rewarded for his efforts accordingly with a new contract in 2014 worth six years and $52.5 million.

The contract, as the Indians always tend to do, was front-loaded and team-friendly. As the risk tends to go with front-loaded contracts the later we get into this deal, the more the Indians were risking.

Kipnis is owed $13.66 million in 2018 and $14.66 million in 2019, according to Spotrac data. This is where it gets tough for an organization that is considering what approach it wants to take to its future in regards to a higher payroll.

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The organization has a tough decision to make on handling the return of three key players this offseason: Michael Brantley ($12 million club option) , Jay Bruce (outright FA), and Carlos Santana (outright FA). The ability to keep any one of those three is tough to tell when we aren’t quite sure how much financial flexibility ownership will be lending its front office.

They surprised last year with Edwin’s contract, and they did it again in August making the move for Jay Bruce and the remainder of his deal.

How does this conundrum tie into Jason Kipnis you may ask? Well, financially speaking the Indians can’t afford all of these veterans.

With how Jose Ramirez continues to shine both defensively and offensively at second base it is becoming abundantly clear that Kipnis will need to be moved within the organization if he is going to stay put.

Kipnis’ situation moving forward also ties into the Tribe’s biggest offseason question: what to do at first base? They will most likely be patient and see how the market shakes out for Carlos Santana, and if he walks, try to replace him from within.

The idea here being that either Kipnis (or Brantley) can slide to first base and handle the reduced role defensively (each could use it). Another scenario for Kipnis is taking over an outfield spot – his natural position. This seems less likely due to the plethora of depth the organization has out there.

The issue I would think is best for the organization is to attempt to move Kipnis this offseason to clear the necessary cap space to keep two of the three names listed above: Brantley, Santana or Bruce. That’s a call I can’t make as each hold significant value.

Sure, an approach to move Kipnis with his value lower than ever isn’t necessarily wise in a vacuum. But his season can be spun as a write-off due to injuries, much like his 2014 campaign. A fresh start may do both Kipnis and the Indians well in this regard, because the team has shown it can win without him.

We’ve seen some small strides from Urshella at the plate, hitting .247 since August 1 with three doubles and nine RBI. His glove at third base alone is worth letting him develop in the nine-hole in the lineup. This makes Kipnis expendable, and opening up his cap figure makes sense for the Indians as they try to keep the names listed above and prolong the title window.

All of this could be moot, and the Indians may deem Kipnis is too important to move after one injury-riddled season. Terry Francona will most likely favor the side of faith in his veteran and will believe his All-Star second baseman can bounce back. Odds favor we will most likely see Kipnis in Cleveland in 2018.

More of this outcome probably ties into the success we see from the 2017 Indians, and the impact Jason Kipnis has, or doesn’t have, on it. If they win the World Series, they probably err on the side of shedding some money and being more responsible. If they come close again only to lose, I’m sure all the chips are on the table.

Next: The healthy core needed for a title in 2017

Of course, this is all subjective, and management could have different plans than anyone is considering. If there’s one thing I know about this organization of late, it’s to expect the unexpected. Regardless, I’ll always love Jason Kipnis and cherish his time in Cleveland.