Cleveland Indians: Revisiting a hybrid six-man rotation

When Danny Salazar first struggled and left the rotation, I suggested the Tribe use a hybrid six-man rotation to figure things out. So far so good, but will it last?

Reports show that Terry Francona is only going to keep the six-man rotation alive for a little while longer. But who is going to leave the rotation?

Five-Thirty Eight did an analysis of whether a six-man rotation is ever worth considering in the modern MLB. As you can imagine from the title of the article, the author concluded that a six-man rotation could prevent injuries, but it was a correlative analysis, and not a causal one. Others have done similar analyses and found similar results.

But what’s the harm in a hybrid rotation? Terry Francona could flip a coin to decide whether Trevor Bauer goes to the bullpen or Josh Tomlin gets designated for assignment. Or, he could choose to protect his starters (who all have recent injuries) by employing a hybrid six-man rotation.

The nuts and bolts

Corey Kluber needs to pitch as often as possible. He’s having another Cy Young-like year, and he would be the front-runner if Chris Sale was not so dominant Carlos Carrasco also needs to pitch as often as he can. Carrasco looks to be over his injury woes, and he is pitching well enough to call for full-time pitching status.

But the rest? Employ the other four starters in a three-man rotation that rotates every turn. Mike Clevinger slots in at the number three starter role in the first round, along with Danny Salazar at the number four, and Josh Tomlin at the number five. Trevor Bauer gets an entire week off, likely along with heavy pitching on the side and possibly an appearance out of the bullpen.

The next turn, Bauer steps into the number three role, Clevinger four, etc. Because there are only 62 games left, this would work out to where Kluber and Carrasco get 12 more starts each, and two (Salazar and Clevinger) get 10 starts while Bauer and Tomlin each get nine starts.

How this benefits the Cleveland Indians

The first benefit is the injury protection. Keeping both Bauer and Tomlin up and ready in the rotation, with regular starts, prevents relying on someone like Ryan Merritt to pitch in the ALCS and prevents Corey Kluber from pitching every game on three-days rest in the playoffs. Moving Bauer to the bullpen does not stretch him out for when he is needed for the playoffs.

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A secondary benefit is directly for Clevinger. While Clevinger might not pitch as the fourth starter in the playoffs, he could. If he continues to dominate, he will be hard to hold back in a seven-game series.

He is also in his first season as a full-time starter in the major leagues. How many times in the past have we seen young fireballers get sidelined in the postseason or fall apart in the playoffs because of workload? Too often to count.

The tertiary benefit is confidence. Terry Francona shows confidence in Trevor Bauer (who needs it a lot) and Josh Tomlin (who needs it more than he lets on) that both have pitched well enough recently to stay in the rotation.

Of course, he could easily pull the plug, but why not keep the train going if Bauer is going to throw eight innings of one-run ball three days after Tomlin dominates with 79 pitches over six innings? It’s a win-win.

Is this a reality?

Unfortunately, this is a pipe dream. While Terry Francona is one of the most inventive managers in the game (hello leadoff hitter who gets on base), going to a six-man rotation, especially one like described above, might carry too much risk with limited reward.

Terry knows best, and I am confident that he will make the right decision between Bauer and Tomlin, or, throw the wildcard, and send Clevinger back to Triple-A to eat innings and wait for Tomlin and Bauer to implode before calling him back up.

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What I fear is putting Bauer in the bullpen, which would end his high-pitch, workhorse-mentality and put him in high-leverage situations where he is bound to fail. Here’s to hope!