Cleveland Indians: Breaking down the issues on the basepaths

Last season the Indians had one of the best offenses in MLB because of timely hitting and great base running, but the latter seems to have disappeared.

Last season the Cleveland Indians averaged .83 steals per game to lead the American League. As of today, they are averaging .38 steals per game (11th in the AL). That low figure means they are on track for 61 steals in a 162-game season.

An obvious missing factor this season is Rajai Davis and his 43 steals. He had more steals than three teams had total last year. Jose Ramirez also finished with 22, Francisco Lindor had 19, and Jason Kipnis had 15.

Who leads the Indians in stolen bases right now? Ramirez? Lindor? Kipnis? Nope. It’s Michael Brantley with a big four steals, and that’s just the beginning of the problem.

This drop-off is obvious, and it leads to fewer baserunners in scoring position, but stealing bases is only one part of baserunning. Taking the extra base helped the Indians in the regular season and the playoffs last year. One great way to show how a team or player is running aside from stolen bases is Ultimate Base Running (UBR).

This statistic basically takes a player and figures out how their baserunning (without stolen bases or caught stealing) adds runs. In short, 0 is the league average and a positive number is good.

Last year, the Indians had the second-best team UBR in the MLB at 16.7. This year they are 11th with only 1.5 so far.

Ramirez led the way in 2016 for the entire league with a UBR of 6.9. Davis came in seventh with 4.2 with Kipnis (2.2) and Tyler Naquin (1.7) having good seasons as well.

This year, Brantley and Kipnis both are near the top at 1.8, but other than Lindor’s 1.5 UBR, the Indians don’t appear too high up.

In “Speed score (Spd),” a great way to measure quickness that uses stolen bases, attempts, triples, doubles, and other baserunning, the Indians are 24th with a 3.9 score. Last year they were third with 5.1. 

An average Spd is 4.5, which means five of the Indians everyday starters are below average. Last year only Carlos Santana, Mike Napoli, and the catchers had a below-average Spd. Ramirez’s 4.1, Kipnis’ 3.3, and Brantley’s 3.8 are all disappointing this year and have contributed to the slowed down offense.

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One remarkable Spd value on the team is Austin Jackson. His Spd for the 2017 season so far is .5. His UBR is -1.2 and it doesn’t seem as though he is a perfect replacement for Davis and his legs.

The Indians are clearly a worse baserunning team in 2017, but what does that mean in terms of wins and another title run?

Last season the Indians ranked third in the MLB in overall baserunning. This season they are 11th and other than Bradley Zimmer it doesn’t look as though they have much speed to add to the roster.

Their “Runs Above Replacement” is at 45.7 and 20th in the MLB. Last year, they finished fourth. Not all of this drop is due to the baserunning, as the defense went from fifth to 23rd this year and the overall offense from fourth to 13th, but it definitely is playing a role.

The Indians starting pitching has been inconsistent and some of the best hitters in the lineups are just starting to emerge from slumps, but the baserunning cannot be ignored.

Last season, guys like Roberto Perez and Napoli were taking the extra base at important times, and that needs to again happen if the Indians are going to make it to the postseason.

Baserunning isn’t all about being fast enough to steal. It’s about knowing when to steal and when to take the extra base. 

An extra base equals another guy in scoring position which equals another scoring chance which equals a higher probability of runs which equals more runs which equals more wins.

Next: 3 takeaways from the Ohio Cup

It’s a simple equation that the Indians just forgot or don’t know how to do.