Cleveland Indians Look to Shrink Magic Number and Knock Out Defending Champs

The Cleveland Indians have hit the home stretch, as the team will play its final 13 games in the next 13 days. First up are the defending champion Kansas City Royals, who will need a miracle to make the postseason.

It’s an old adage in sports that, while reaching the top of the mountain and winning a championship is tough, getting back is even tougher. The Kansas City Royals, who come to town to start a three-game series with the Cleveland Indians on Tuesday night, are finding out just how true that axiom is.

The Royals came up just short in 2014, falling to the San Francisco Giants and a freight train named Madison Bumgarner in the World Series, but defied the odds and returned to the Fall Classic last season, ultimately taking home the club’s first title in 30 years. 2016, however, has not gone as planned, as injuries and inconsistent starting pitching have Ned Yost’s squad hoping for a miracle to reach the postseason for a third straight year.

Kansas City enters Tuesday night’s game staring up at Cleveland from 9.5 games back, giving it zero statistical possibility of winning the American League Central Division according to FanGraphs. At five games back of the second wild card spot, the odds of securing a playoff spot aren’t much better.

On the other side, the Indians are in fine shape for the shape they’re in. Despite a slew of injuries and a bit of a beef with a local media member, the Tribe is fresh off a series win over the Detroit Tigers that cut the magic number to clinch the division to just seven. At this point, it appears the question is not if the team will do so, but rather when.

But it’s not all sunshine and fresh-cut grass for Cleveland, as the injuries sustained to the pitching staff have served to handcuff the starting rotation. These final 13 days of the regular season will be used to figure out how best to move forward into the postseason, and to prepare the mound corps to be at its best when it’s needed most.

This is the first of two three-gamers the Royals and Indians will play in that span, so let’s take a look at what we need to know.

Numbers to Know

15

There are 15 teams in the American League, and in a number of offensive categories, Kansas City ranks 15th, dead last, or very close to it. The Royals are at the bottom of the barrel in home runs, runs batted in, and OPS+, while ranking in the bottom three of the AL in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS.

Those numbers are not terribly surprising when viewed in the context of the injuries the team has endured this season. Mike Moustakas was limited to 27 games before a season-ending injury, Lorenzo Cain has missed nearly two months and has appeared in just one game since August 30th, and Alex Gordon missed a month as well. Gordon has not been his usual self since returning to the lineup.

While Eric Hosmer, Salvador Perez, and Kendrys Morales have all been solid, and rookie Cheslor Cuthbert has filled in admirably for Moustakas, Kansas City just hasn’t had the same kind of never-say-die firepower this season that had propelled them on the playoff runs the past two years.

5.79

During the Royals’ run of championship contention, there have been few relievers in all of baseball as dominant as Wade Davis. Since transitioning to the bullpen in 2014, Davis has a 1.17 earned run average, a .159/.237/.212 opponents’ slash line, a 0.88 WHIP, and nearly 12 strikeouts per nine innings.

But two trips to the disabled list with a right forearm strain caused the 31-year old to miss the first half of July and the entire month of August, and he hasn’t been the same. Since returning from the first stint on the DL on July 16th, Davis has appeared in 10 games, allowing five runs and an opposition slash line of .286/.375/.343 in nine innings of work.

He came back from his second DL stint on September 2nd, and it’s only gotten worse. His ERA for the month sits at 5.79, with three runs allowed in 4.2 innings, and opposing hitters are teeing off on him at a .316/.381/.421 rate that he’s never experienced as a reliever.

193

Despite Davis’ health issues, the Kansas City pitching staff as a whole has been above league average in most statistical categories. The one area the club’s hurlers struggle in, though, is in giving up the longball.

The Royals have yielded 193 home runs in 2016 as a staff, which is fifth-most in the AL at a rate of 1.3 per game. Two of the starters that will face Cleveland in this series have given up 21 or more, in Edinson Volquez and Ian Kennedy. Kennedy is tied for third-most in the league with 31, right behind the Indians’ Josh Tomlin (35).

Despite being second in the AL in runs scored, the Tribe is just 10th in hitting homers, with 177 for the season as a team. But both Mike Napoli and Carlos Santana have eclipsed the 30-dinger mark, and several others in the lineup have set career-highs, making this a story to watch in the series.

Players to Know

Cheslor Cuthbert

As mentioned, Cuthbert was not originally in Kansas City’s plans to be an everyday player this season, but has done a solid job in his first full pro season. In 116 games, the native of Nicaragua is slashing .273/.313/.408 with 27 doubles, 10 home runs, and 43 RBIs.

Where Cuthbert has been especially good, though, has been against the Indians. Among teams he has played in four or more games against, Cuthbert has his highest OPS+ against the Tribe at 172, with a .378/.442/.514 slash line, two doubles, a home run, and five driven in. His batting average on balls in play is a gaudy .464 against Cleveland.

Kendrys Morales

As good as Cuthbert has been against the Indians, Morales has been downright abysmal. Normally serviceable if not spectacular against the Tribe, the 33-year old has an OPS+ of just 26 in the matchup in 2016.

Morales is 7-for-44 against Cleveland pitching this season, good for a .159/.196/.250 slash line, one double, one homer, and four RBIs. His BABIP, as one would expect, has been the polar opposite of Cuthbert’s, coming in at a chilly .188.

Ian Kennedy

While Kennedy has given up his fair share of longballs this season after signing a 5-year, $70 millions contract in the offseason, he has actually been more than serviceable. The right-hander has posted an 11-9 record in 177.1 innings, with a 3.60 ERA and 123 ERA+.

Kennedy has already faced the Indians four times this season, one of the side effects of the unbalanced MLB schedule, and has had mixed results. In 24 innings of work, he’s yielded 16 runs (6.00 ERA), surrendering eight home runs and an OPS+ of 121, and the Royals are 2-2 in those games.