Cleveland Indians Look to Shrink Magic Number and Knock Out Defending Champs

The Cleveland Indians have hit the home stretch, as the team will play its final 13 games in the next 13 days. First up are the defending champion Kansas City Royals, who will need a miracle to make the postseason.

It’s an old adage in sports that, while reaching the top of the mountain and winning a championship is tough, getting back is even tougher. The Kansas City Royals, who come to town to start a three-game series with the Cleveland Indians on Tuesday night, are finding out just how true that axiom is.

The Royals came up just short in 2014, falling to the San Francisco Giants and a freight train named Madison Bumgarner in the World Series, but defied the odds and returned to the Fall Classic last season, ultimately taking home the club’s first title in 30 years. 2016, however, has not gone as planned, as injuries and inconsistent starting pitching have Ned Yost’s squad hoping for a miracle to reach the postseason for a third straight year.

Kansas City enters Tuesday night’s game staring up at Cleveland from 9.5 games back, giving it zero statistical possibility of winning the American League Central Division according to FanGraphs. At five games back of the second wild card spot, the odds of securing a playoff spot aren’t much better.

On the other side, the Indians are in fine shape for the shape they’re in. Despite a slew of injuries and a bit of a beef with a local media member, the Tribe is fresh off a series win over the Detroit Tigers that cut the magic number to clinch the division to just seven. At this point, it appears the question is not if the team will do so, but rather when.

But it’s not all sunshine and fresh-cut grass for Cleveland, as the injuries sustained to the pitching staff have served to handcuff the starting rotation. These final 13 days of the regular season will be used to figure out how best to move forward into the postseason, and to prepare the mound corps to be at its best when it’s needed most.

This is the first of two three-gamers the Royals and Indians will play in that span, so let’s take a look at what we need to know.

Numbers to Know

15

There are 15 teams in the American League, and in a number of offensive categories, Kansas City ranks 15th, dead last, or very close to it. The Royals are at the bottom of the barrel in home runs, runs batted in, and OPS+, while ranking in the bottom three of the AL in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS.

Those numbers are not terribly surprising when viewed in the context of the injuries the team has endured this season. Mike Moustakas was limited to 27 games before a season-ending injury, Lorenzo Cain has missed nearly two months and has appeared in just one game since August 30th, and Alex Gordon missed a month as well. Gordon has not been his usual self since returning to the lineup.

While Eric Hosmer, Salvador Perez, and Kendrys Morales have all been solid, and rookie Cheslor Cuthbert has filled in admirably for Moustakas, Kansas City just hasn’t had the same kind of never-say-die firepower this season that had propelled them on the playoff runs the past two years.

5.79

During the Royals’ run of championship contention, there have been few relievers in all of baseball as dominant as Wade Davis. Since transitioning to the bullpen in 2014, Davis has a 1.17 earned run average, a .159/.237/.212 opponents’ slash line, a 0.88 WHIP, and nearly 12 strikeouts per nine innings.

But two trips to the disabled list with a right forearm strain caused the 31-year old to miss the first half of July and the entire month of August, and he hasn’t been the same. Since returning from the first stint on the DL on July 16th, Davis has appeared in 10 games, allowing five runs and an opposition slash line of .286/.375/.343 in nine innings of work.

He came back from his second DL stint on September 2nd, and it’s only gotten worse. His ERA for the month sits at 5.79, with three runs allowed in 4.2 innings, and opposing hitters are teeing off on him at a .316/.381/.421 rate that he’s never experienced as a reliever.

193

Despite Davis’ health issues, the Kansas City pitching staff as a whole has been above league average in most statistical categories. The one area the club’s hurlers struggle in, though, is in giving up the longball.

The Royals have yielded 193 home runs in 2016 as a staff, which is fifth-most in the AL at a rate of 1.3 per game. Two of the starters that will face Cleveland in this series have given up 21 or more, in Edinson Volquez and Ian Kennedy. Kennedy is tied for third-most in the league with 31, right behind the Indians’ Josh Tomlin (35).

Despite being second in the AL in runs scored, the Tribe is just 10th in hitting homers, with 177 for the season as a team. But both Mike Napoli and Carlos Santana have eclipsed the 30-dinger mark, and several others in the lineup have set career-highs, making this a story to watch in the series.

Probable Pitching Matchups

Kansas City just completed a series with the Chicago White Sox, and the way the club’s starting rotation shakes out, Cleveland will not see Yordano Ventura or Danny Duffy. Volquez will get the nod on Tuesday night against Tomlin, and he’s pitched well his last two times out against the Indians, allowing just two runs in 14 innings, winning both games.

Tomlin, who lost his spot in the rotation due to a nightmare July and August, is back on the bump due to the injuries to Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco. He’s appeared only twice in the month of September, but his last was a start against the White Sox in which he gave up a run on four hits in five innings and mercifully stayed away from the longball.

Saturday is the marquee pitching matchup of the series with Kennedy matching up against Corey Kluber. Kluber may well be the frontrunner for the AL Cy Young Award, and the Tribe is 9-1 in his last ten starts. He’s pitched well in three games against Kansas City this year, allowing 8 runs, only five of which were earned, in 18 innings (2.50 ERA), punching out 10.5 batters per nine innings.

In Sunday’s finale, Tribe rookie Mike Clevinger will face off with veteran Jason Vargas. Clevinger, whose role in the rotation and in the playoff push has grown exponentially with the losses of Carrasco and Salazar, has pitched well of late, allowing just 10 earned runs in 39 innings of work (2.31 ERA) since being recalled from Triple-A Columbus in early August.

Vargas is making just his second start since returning from over a year’s absence due to Tommy John surgery. The 33-year old lefty gave up a run on two hits in three innings against the White Sox, and has a career 6-3 mark with a 4.70 ERA against Cleveland.

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The Indians are 8-5 on the season against the Royals, outscoring them 65-46 in those games, and would like to complete the feat of posting a winning record against every team in the Central Division. With a postseason berth inching closer, the Tribe must continue to play solidly at home, taking its destiny into its own hands before a season-ending roadtrip beckons.