Cleveland Indians Need to Rediscover Their Winning Ways

After surging into first place, the Cleveland Indians have seen their lead nearly evaporate over the past two weeks

Just over two weeks ago, the Cleveland Indians seemed like sure things to win the American League Central. FanGraphs gave them a 92.2 percent chance of taking home the division crown on the morning of July 20^th, marking the peak of the Tribe’s odds of achieving the feat for the first time in a decade. This was nothing surprising given their extensive lead over the Tigers and impressive winning streak a few weeks before. 

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In fact, I was so confident about the Indians’ playoff odds that I declared that they had a clear path to winning the AL Central on the 27^th of June. At the time, the Tribe was in the midst of a historic sweep, and they had just completed a three-game sweep of the Detroit Tigers. Armed with a five-game lead over the Kansas City Royals, FanGraphs granted them an 84.1 percent chance of winning the division.

Now, things appear to be a bit murkier. The Indians have won just five games in their last fifteen matches despite facing some rather weak opponents. After losing two consecutive series to the Minnesota Twins and the New York Yankees, there are now some serious questions about the Cleveland Indians. Their starting pitchers failed to go deep into ballgames, and their bullpen has not given the quality innings the team so desperately needs.

Fortunately, the Kansas City Royals have squandered this opportunity and created a ten-game deficit to overcome. Unfortunately, the Detroit Tigers have pounced on this opportunity by winning 12 of their last 17 games. Over that period of time, they have cut the Indians’ lead from seven and one-half games down to just two. Now, FanGraphs gives the Indians a sizable but smaller 71.4 percent chance of taking home the AL Central crown.

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It goes without saying that this is still a considerable figure, and by no means are the Indians out of luck. Their starting pitching is still one of the best units in the major leagues, and every staff falls on hard times. Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco have helped to quell fears by providing the Indians with back-to-back strong outings, although the offense faltered behind Carrasco and the team lost yet again.

For more good news, the Cleveland Indians will face some easier teams in the near future. After their next two games against the Washington Nationals, they will get to play the struggling Los Angeles Angles in a potentially record-boosting four-game series. Then they will make up a game against the Boston Red Sox before battling the Chicago White Sox in a three-game set. If the Tribe can turn things around against these teams, their lead should remain intact.

Still, they have to win these games. It may go without saying, but they cannot continue to lose – especially if the Tigers continue to win. Detroit will be stuck with tougher opponents in the Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers, Kansas City Royals, and Boston Red Sox in their four next series. All but the Royals have winning records, and the Royals are certainly not going to roll over dead.

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There is no reason to panic about the Indians’ current situation, but it certainly would be nice to have a bit of breathing room atop the leaderboards. They still have one of the best records in the American League, and Andrew Miller will certainly help to solidify the bullpen. It just seems that the division race has become a little more exciting.