Cleveland Indians to Open Series Against Oakland Athletics Tonight

After being splitting a series with the Washington Nationals, the Cleveland Indians must turn things around against the Oakland Athletics

The calendar is approaching August, and the Cleveland Indians are still in first place. While this may seem great, they are caught in a bit of a tailspin after their incredible winning streak, a fact that has only been stressed this week. They managed to split a series 1-1 with the Washington Nationals, but they are still just 4-6 in their last ten games. With the second-place Detroit Tigers on a three-game winning streak and just four and one-half games behind the Tribe, now is the time to pull off a sweep against a weaker rival.

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For the Oakland Athletics, this year has not gone well at all. They sit 11.5 games out of first place in the American League West with a poor 47-55 record, and they look primed to be sellers at the trade deadline. Pitching has been a surprising problem for the A’s, as Sonny Gray has regressed quite a bit to post rather terrible results and most of the other starters have been uninspiring. Rich Hill has been the lone bright spot in that rotation.

Their offense should not be much of a problem either, which bodes well for the Cleveland Indians since their starting pitching has been a big strength. The A’s rank last in the American League in on-base percentage and offensive wins above replacement, per FanGraphs, and in the bottom half in nearly every other offensive statistic.

As for the individual games, tonight will see Trevor Bauer take on right-handed pitcher Kendall Graveman. Graveman, 25, is coming off a series of strong starts but has been uninspiring overall this season. Through 110.2 innings, he owns a 4.15 earned run average that advanced metrics feel may be too optimistic of a valuation. He lacks velocity on his pitches and relies on his sinker and cutter to induce groundballs.

Bauer, by contrast, mixes his pitches well to avoid over-relying on any one offering and comes with solid velocity. He is in the midst of a breakout season that has seen him reduce his walks while maintaining an average amount of strikeouts. Like Graveman, he induces quite a few groundballs, although he is much like the elite pitchers in the sense that he has other options to get batters out as well.

Saturday’s match looks to be an even more of a lopsided affair. Dillon Overton will make just his fourth career start against the Indians, and the results have not been pretty so far. He has shown a general inability to get pitches past hitters, and he has allowed home runs at an alarming rate. He did look a bit more settled during his last start, but his 8.40 earned run average is quite different from that of his opponent, Josh Tomlin.

Tomlin has been exceptionally good this season, although advanced metrics are no fan of his work. While he has a mind-bogglingly low walk rate, he also fails to strike out many batters and has benefitted from an absurdly low batting average on balls in play. I warned of these dangers a few weeks ago, but it is still safe to say that he is a better pitcher than Overton.

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For the final game of the series, Corey Kluber will take on an unknown pitcher. Kluber has been characteristically great in his age-30 season, although he continues to fair better with advanced metrics than his actual run prevention rates. Still, he has an elite strikeout differential (the difference between his strikeout and walk rates), a killer pitching arsenal, and a solid batted ball profile. Hopefully, he can give another great performance against the A’s to clinch a series sweep for the Cleveland Indians.