Cleveland Indians: Is It Too Late for Trevor Bauer to Be an All-Star in 2016?

The Cleveland Indians’ Trevor Bauer was electric in June, but is it too late to crack the All-Star squad?

Trevor Bauer entered the season with a label that no one wanted, that of a failed prospect for the Cleveland Indians. As third overall pick in the 2011 draft, Bauer began his professional career with lots of hype and high expectations. During his time at the University of California, Los Angeles, Bauer racked up heaps of strikeouts and became one of the best college pitchers in the nation. He even won the Golden Spikes Award, which is given to the best amateur baseball player in the nation, adding to the expectations of future success. 

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With his highly unusual training routine in tow, Bauer dominated in the minor leagues. Reaching Triple-A by the middle of his second season, he seemed to be living up to the expectations. Much like in college, he accumulated strikeouts at an impressive rate while preventing runs, but something new became a problem: the professional batters he faced had a better eye at the plate. As a consequence, he began to walk more and more batters.

Upon reaching the major leagues for the first time with the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2012, the right-hander was one of the first players from the 2011 draft in the major leagues. Despite this lofty status, he did not pitch well at all. In just over 16 innings, he allowed 11 earned runs with an alarming number of walks.

The Diamondbacks shipped Bauer to the Cleveland Indians that off-season and the struggles continued. The right-hander failed to find his form in either the major or minor leagues in 2013, posting earned run averages above four in both settings. He managed to improve things a bit the next year, but he never really found himself in the major leagues. By the end of last season, he seemed destined as a fifth starter or a bullpen option.

Now, things look completely different. He began the season in the bullpen and experience mild success there before moving back to the starting rotation after some injuries. Since that return, he has been utterly fantastic, armed with a 2.79 earned run average. While advanced metrics have been a little down on his work, they still see him as a great pitcher.

Given his great successes, is it possible for him to make the All-Star team? It seems like a bit of a stretch considering that he has only made 12 starts while most of the other candidates have made 16, but the level of play has been outstanding. Truthfully, deciding on who makes the team all comes down to which statistics one uses. No matter the type of WAR one uses, Bauer is ranked in the 11-12 overall in the American League.

Unfortunately, this still counts Bauer’s work from the bullpen, and switching to only including work from the starting rotation removes Bauer as a qualified pitcher. If we adjust the minimum innings pitched from the starting rotation, we find him back on the list in the 13-15^th place range. It is quite a feat to be ranked that high when pitching 20 to 30 innings less than most of the other pitchers on the list.

Still, this is not good enough. CC Sabathia is just ahead of Bauer in the rankings, and he has pitched for fewer innings than the Cleveland Indian. As great as Trevor Bauer has been, there are plenty of other pitchers who have pitched at or above his level of excellence. It would be rash to select the All-Star team based on players’ performances in June alone. Rather, the managers should thoughtfully consider who are the best players in the game right now and use those picks to maximize their chance of winning.

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As great as Trevor Bauer has been, it would be inappropriate to claim that he has pitched like one of the six top starting pitchers in the American League. He may have pitched that way for the past month, but a great month is not enough to warrant an All-Star selection.