Cleveland Indians: Third base or outfield? Whatever they can afford

The Cleveland Indians still have a few needs, but which should they pursue? Whichever option the budget allows for.

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I’ve been following the team-by-team rankings on ESPN.com since they came out last week with teams 24 through 30.  To be honest, when they got to teams 19 through 24 on the second day I started to look for the

.  That may be my Cleveland inferiority complex showing through, or it may be just what my brain thinks of this team.

They brought out teams seven through 12 today, and there sit the Indians at number 12.  Boston was the only other AL team listed today; since Houston, Kansas City, and Toronto have not been listed yet, it appears that they rate Cleveland as the fifth best team in the league.  In other words, a playoff team.  There are 6 to 8other teams that can get into that fight if things bounce right, but it is good to see national media talking about the Indians in such positive terms.

The most positive aspect of the Indians ranking so highly to me is this: If they can be a wild card team when the projected third baseman is coming off a .608 OPS and the projected right fielder is coming off a .667 OPS, how good could this team be if those two positions were providing even league average offense?  Even better is the fact that there are still several available free agents who can play those positions.  With pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training this week, those players’ asking prices are likely to soon look like the clearance rack at Kohl’s, which is when the Indians like to do their best shopping.

It’s not out of the question that Giovanny Urshela will be better in 2016.  After all, he’s only 24, has just 288 major league plate appearances, and spent much of the latter part of 2015 nursing various injuries that had to hamper his play.  Still, some sort of insurance policy is probably in order.  The Indians are talking to Juan Uribe, who posted an OPS of .737 last year and is regarded as a good fielder.  David Freese is also available but has not been linked to the Indians in any rumors, probably because he is asking for more money than Uribe, who is about to turn 37.

Uribe is a better fielder, and probably more likely to take a one-year deal, which would be preferable if Urshela is still thought to be the long-term answer.  As a former shortstop, Uribe would also be more likely than Freese to shift smoothly into a utility role if circumstances warrant it.  The Indians will need someone to spell Mike Napoli, who has never played more than 140 games in his career at first base, and Uribe may be a better candidate for that than Carlos Santana, whom they will probably prefer to use solely as a DH so that he comfortable with the role, especially since he has struggled when trying to handle multiple roles in the past.

Although the Indians are linked with fewer outfielders, the need there may be greater.  The opening day lineup projects to be Rajai Davis in left, Abraham Almonte in center and Lonnie Chisenhall in right.  When Michael Brantley is healthy, Davis will probably platoon with Chisenhall and Almonte.  The best alternatives appear to be Joey Butler and Collin Cowgill.  Butler is a poor fielder and struggles against left-handers; he may back up Davis in left until Brantley returns but after that would provide no platoon advantage.Cowgill is a good fielder but is helpless against right-handers  Even against left-handers, his career OPS is .733, which isn’t really a selling point for a corner outfielder.  If Cowgill gets more than 150 at bats this year I would consider it to be a problem, but, given the lack of experience and the platoon differentials of the projected opening day starters, it is difficult to envision how he wouldn’t end up with at least the 230 at bats that Ryan Raburn averaged over the past three years in essentially the same role.

Cowgill is a good fielder but is helpless against right-handers  Even against left-handers, his career OPS is .733, which isn’t really a selling point for a corner outfielder.  If Cowgill gets more than 150 at bats this year I would consider it to be a problem, but, given the lack of experience and the platoon differentials of the projected opening day starters, it is difficult to envision how he wouldn’t end up with at least the 230 at bats that Ryan Raburn averaged over the past three years in essentially the same role.

Signing or trading for a center fielder would push Almonte into a depth role, which is probably more in line with his capabilities.  Given the financial constraints, the Indians probably can’t sign both a center fielder and a third baseman and, therefore, must choose one or the other; they appear to have chosen to replace Urshela.  The logic behind this appears to be that there are multiple options already available in the outfield and that enough quality can be found in the quantity to make things work.  The hitch in this plan would be if Brantley is out longer than expected.

Terry Francona could probably get through a month mixing and matching role players, but asking him to do it for much longer than that is probably wishful thinking.  The other potential glitch would be if Almonte reverts to his previous level of play.  This is not an abstract thought; before joining the Indians at the trade deadline his career OPS was .610.  If Almonte falters, the alternatives would be to move Davis to center field and put Butler in left until Brantley comes back (which would weaken both positions defensively), or to give Tyler Naquin a shot.

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Being a borderline playoff contender with so many holes in the lineup is good news, as long as those holes are not allowed to linger too long into the season.  A batting order that includes Urshela, Almonte and Chisenhall are too much of a gamble for a team that considers itself a contender.  As the asking prices of the remaining free agents start to drop, look for the Indians to add one more piece.