Cleveland Indians Offseason Search For Offense Volume 6: Chris Davis

Our series on the Cleveland Indians’ offseason search for offense continues, as we look at first baseman Chris Davis and what he can bring to the Tribe

The new world of baseball, if the Kansas City Royals are to be believed, forgoes the typical slow-footed slugging type in favor of athleticism and the ability to do several things well. It means a fading of the typical beer-bellied everyman aspect of baseball that’s so attractive, and it means the crushing of many a beer-league softball star’s dreams. That doesn’t mean that template is gone though. People will always want a player with the ability to mash, as long as he isn’t a total waste of space otherwise. So, while last time we talked about a slugging outfielder working in the midst of a firesale, now it’s time to look to a big guy that took a while to break out and who is available – for the right price at least.

Potential Power Producer #6: Chris Davis

Relevant Stats: 670 PA, 47 HR, .562 SLG, .300 ISO

Positives: Davis packs easy, silly power. It’s what we’re here for. He’s the type of player that looks like he’s just hitting pop flies to the left fielder, then it travels 500 feet due to that plow boy strength. That Jim Thome effect, where you’re sure Davis just pulls trees out of the ground in the offseason. Davis has hit 126 home runs the last three years, a stretch that includes a dinged up 2014. And unlike some of the other guys we’ve looked at, he also walks a good amount – 12.5% of plate appearances last year and Steamer has him at 11.4 in 2016. That would be third best on the team were he here in 2015, behind Roberto Perez. He’s very much a Three True Outcome player, and while that’s not exactly the most satisfying type of player to have, he’d be able to knock guys in and stretch the lineup out. And again, dingers. Bombs. We’d get what we’d want. That’s the expectation, anyway. Defensively, he’s no great shakes – just a typical first baseman. But he is left-handed, which is helpful for first basemen. Getting that extra couple inches and being able to stretch like he can could probably translate into an extra couple of outs per season. It’s not a lot, but it’s definitely something.

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Negatives: He only plays first base, lacking that versatility the Indians have been working towards the last few years. This would create a logjam too, since Carlos Santana is mainly the 1B/DH on the team and Michael Brantley is likely to DH a lot this year as he rounds back into shape post-surgery. There’s just no room. He’d also be coming from a hitter-friendly park in Camden Yards (in addition to another 25 or so games a year in Fenway Park, Yankee Stadium and Rogers Centre, all great places for hitters) to a division full of pitchers’ parks. His wRC+ dropped from 167 at home to 128 on the road in 2015. That’s still a happy number to be sure, but for the money he’d be getting and the expected role, you’d want at least something in the 140’s. He also profiles very similarly to Adam Dunn. Both are big lefties who hit a ton of bombs and strike out 30% of the time and make contact roughly 70% of the time when swinging. Dunn, as you’ll remember, fell off precipitously when going to the White Sox, either not healthy or utterly ineffectual outside of home runs, making his $56 million deal a mess for the Sox. It was weird what happened to Dunn – perhaps he never adjusted to the new league, perhaps he got lazy – but it’s definitely something to keep in mind.

Cost: Unlike all the other players we’ve looked at so far, Davis won’t cost any players since he’s a free agent. The issue is, he does cost that thing the Indians don’t have much of – money. Even if baseball as a whole is moving away from the style Davis plays – that offense only, no defense kind of thing – he’s still going to be paid in excess of $100 million. Adding to that, he received a qualifying offer from the Orioles and turned it down, meaning the Tribe would have to forfeit their first round draft pick next year to get Davis. The draft is supposed to be the backbone of the Indians becoming good, so that’s a tough pill to swallow in exchange for one position player who only brings power to the table.

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Liklihood: Low. Davis would just be too expensive, especially after losing a draft pick. Maybe if the Indians had been worse last season and had a protected pick they might consider him, as with Nick Swisher, but they don’t. They have other players that I, for one, would rather they spend money on going forward. Ownership is likely scared after those big money deals for Swisher and Michael Bourn went so sour, and again, that money could be better spent elsewhere. And with that Dunn template, you just have to wonder what will happen with Davis. It’s entirely possible he goes the Jose Bautista route and is a premier power threat deep into his 30’s, but the low contact rate, high K rate and a merely pretty good walk rate are off-putting. It would definitely be a sign of good will if nothing else to the fans that the management wants to do more than field a mediocre team, but whether it’d be a good idea long term is the real question.