Cleveland Indians: Thinking About Trading a Starter?

Are the Cleveland Indians going to trade one of their starting pitchers? The possibility isn’t that far-fetched.

It seems appropriate to begin this essay with the fact that both the Detroit Tigers and the New York Yankees have acquired major league center fielders over the past week. It’s remarkable what can be accomplished when a front office works with the expectation that problems will be solved. On to the essay.

I was hoping that the Indians would refrain from trading one of their core four starting pitchers this offseason. That sort of rotation is so hard to come by, and having 130 so starts every year made by a guy who has the stuff to be dominant is a big step toward being a contender. But the reality is that the Indians will probably need to add two bats by opening day – a corner infielder and an outfielder.  Maybe there is a creative solution out there – Jose Ramirez in center, maybe – and maybe there is a free agent in our price range who will deliver results, but it seems inevitable that at least one of those bats will be acquired at the price of a starting pitcher.

Which brings us to Todd Frazier. The Reds appear to be wholly committed to a rebuild, which means that anyone over the age of 25 can be had, except apparently Joey Votto. Frazier is 29 and has another year on his contract, plus an arbitration year before he becomes a free agent. He ranked seventh among all third basemen in OPS and ninth in WAR last season. He hit more home runs than the top two Indians, and would have tied for second on the Indians in double and stolen bases, and been fourth in walks.  So it seems obvious that he would have an impact. He is not a good third baseman, so the Indians may consider moving him to DH or first base, unless they feel that Giovanny Urshela is absolutely not a viable option at third.

Frazier will make 7.5 million next year. You won’t get a guy with 30 homer potential for anything close to that through free agency. He will be eligible for arbitration after next season, so any decision on trading for him should assume that his salary will double for 2017. With the Indians’ budget where it is, that may make him a one-year rental, especially with so many other guys having back loaded deals that begin to escalate after 2016. Still, guys like me have been clamoring for Chris Antonetti to do something to upgrade the talent level and Frazier would certainly do that. A batting order with Kipnis, Lindor, Brantley (hopefully), Frazier, Santana, and Gomes in the first six spots seems like it would score some runs.  If the Indians decided Frazier was too expensive after 2016, he would still have significant trade value.

So, if this is something that could actually happen, the question is whether the Indians have something that the Reds want. With no above-average third basemen available via free agency, every team with a hole at that position will at least kick the tires on a Frazier trade, so the Reds will be dealing from a strong position. Trade talks will revolve around one of the four top starters, so the question becomes which of them the Indians are willing to give up and whether Frazier is enough of a prize to justify breaking up the rotation.

My guess is that Corey Kluber will not be traded unless someone offers a Bartolo Colon type package; even then, the Indians would probably ask for a couple of everyday players rather than prospects as part of the package. The Reds might be eager enough to dump Jay Bruce’s salary that they would throw him into the deal, but Bruce is one of those guys who is prone to the o-fer week, which is the last thing the Indians need. I don’t see any other regulars on the Reds that the Indians would want, so the only way a trade involving Kluber and Frazier works is if the Reds throw in prospects, and that would run counter to the direction the Reds want to go.

The Reds (and Cincinnati in general) are not crazy about free thinkers, so it’s tough to see them getting excited about Trevor Bauer, especially after the way he struggled late in the season. I could see Bauer and Jose Ramirez, or something along those lines, maybe getting it done, but my hunch is that the Reds will want more to show their fans from trading a guy as popular as Frazier than a guy with a 4.55 ERA.

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That leaves Carrasco and Salazar. Both have shown enough over the past year or so to have the ace label attached to their name, as least potentially.  Neither can be a free agent until after 2020.  Salazar is three years younger and has seemingly has a higher ceiling than Carrasco, but will be eligible for arbitration after 2016 and may command a contract at that point that would price him out of Cleveland, if he isn’t signed to a deal prior to that.  Given the history of this front office, my guess is that they will approach Salazar with a deal similar to what Carrasco signed; if he seems more inclined to take his chances with arbitration, he will be the one traded.

I am not certain that Salazar for Frazier even up is a trade the Indians should do. Salazar will probably produce more WAR over the next five years or so than Frazier. I would be tempted to hold out for more, but at the end of the day this trade would make the 2016 Indians better.