Cleveland Indians 2015 Rule 5 Draft and Roster Decisions

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The Good Bets

Jeff Johnson – RHRP (1-2, 51 games, 27 saves, 51.1 IP, 1.05 ERA, 2.20 FIP at AA)

After missing the entire 2014 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, Johnson returned to Double-A Akron where he finished his 2013 season. Prior to the injury he showed the ability to rack up the strikeouts with 130 in 120.2 IP (9.7 strikeouts per nine innings).  The question was how he would do after missing a year…

The answer was: strikeout out a ton while limiting contact. He struck out nearly ten per nine innings (9.82) while holding opponents to a mere .154 batting average (third lowest in Eastern League). His 0.90 WHIP was also top ten in the Eastern League (min 20 IP). Johnson may not be on the radar of a lot of Tribe fans but he should open in Triple-A Columbus in 2016 with a realistic shot of making his big league debut. Definitely the type of reliever that would get picked if not protected in the draft (like Austin Adams and Shawn Armstrong before him).

Prediction: Rostered

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Josh Martin – RHRP (8-1, 44 games, 2 saves, 67.1 IP, 2.27 ERA, 2.51 FIP at AA)

Another Akron reliever who had a phenomenal year was Josh Martin. Unlike Johnson, who was the team’s closer and more of a one inning guy, Martin threw 67.1 innings while pitching in just 44 games. He was a true workhorse for the Rubberducks out of the pen and garnered eight wins in relief. His strikeout rate was even better than Johnson’s at 10.69 per nine innings and posting an even lower walk rate (2.54). Like Johnson he did a great job keeping the opposition off base posting a .188 batting average against and 0.98 WHIP.  Given the demand for relievers and his ability to both rack up the strikeouts and go multiple innings, Martin is a prime candidate to be grabbed and stashed as a seventh or eighth reliever by some team. He showed enough that a call up to Cleveland at some point in 2016 should also not be ruled out.

Prediction: Rostered

Next: On the Fence

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On the Fence

James Ramsey – OF (126 games, 12 HR, 42 RBI, .243/.327/.382, 107 wRC+ at AAA)

Had Ramsey been Rule 5 draft eligible last winter he’d have been a lock to have been added to the 40-man roster. He’s a former first round pick by the Cardinals (taken a few picks after Tyler Naquin) and was acquired by the Tribe for Justin Masterson at the deadline last summer. He had proven to be an on-base machine, posting a .369 on-base percentage in three seasons (including a stint in the Arizona Fall League). His OPS was also over .800 and he can play all three outfield positions.

However, 2015 was less than kind to James Ramsey. He struggled a bit with injury but even when healthy struggled at the plate. While he still posted a very healthy walk rate (10.5%), the rest of his game really suffered. His power was down as his .139 ISO was the worst since 2012 when he was fresh out of college, and his OBP was a career worst .327.  Given his struggles (most noticeably the lack of power), there’s a chance the Indians could leave him unprotected with thought he either won’t get picked or won’t stick with a club even if taken.

I personally think that’s a pretty big gamble though. He can still play all three outfield positions (and reasonably well) and could be a fourth or fifth outfielder on some teams, especially one looking to rebuild (like say, the Reds or Brewers). Given the openings on the 40-man and some of the guys still on it, I don’t think there’s much harm in rostering Ramsey.

Prediction: Rostered

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Shawn Morimando – LHSP (10-12, 28 starts, 158.2 IP, 3.18 ERA, 3.64 FIP at AA)

Morimando threw a career high 158.2 innings for the Double-A Akron Rubberducks this year, seventh most in the Eastern League.  Overall his numbers have been very solid for the Tribe, though very little jumps out at you. He’s not a big strikeout guy, though he did raise his K-rate to a career best 7.26 per nine innings this year.  Walk rate and WHIP are pretty average.  Nothing about him screams “must add” as he is also undersized at just 5’11”.  However, he is a lefty and pitched well enough that a team could take a chance on him as a bullpen arm. Tribe saw this with the Orioles grabbing T.J. McFarland several years ago. There’s definitely some risk in leaving Morimando unprotected, and he’s one of the toughest choices for me personally…

Prediction: Not Rostered

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Will Roberts – RHSP (6-2, 14 starts, 86.0 IP, 3.77 ERA, 4.00 FIP at AA; 3-4, 12 starts, 70.2 IP, 3.06 ERA, 4.26 FIP at AAA)

Roberts was on this list last year as well. He’s not flashy at all but a steady starting pitcher that also can work out of the bullpen.  He has limited upside as a starter but enough pitchability to potentially be a back-of-the-rotation starter or swing man in the bullpen.  He doesn’t strike many out (sub-5 per nine innings this season), but he also doesn’t allow many free passes (less than 1.5 walks per nine innings).  Overall though just too many better options to be rostered and enough depth in the system to leave him off the roster, again.

Prediction: Not Rostered

Next: The Longshots

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The Longshots

Todd Hankins – UT, Jeremy Lucas – C, Jake Lowery – C, Grant Sides – RHRP, LeVon Washington – OF, Dorssys Paulino – OF, Perci Garner – RHRP,  Ronny Rodriguez – UT

I try not to say something is “impossible” when it comes to roster decisions, but I would be very surprised if any of these players were added to the Tribe’s 40-man roster.  Hankins may have the best shot of the group as he’s able to play both the infield and outfield and is also currently playing in the Arizona Fall League. However, his bat is well below average and doesn’t have much power.  Lucas and Lowery are a pair of catchers that, while pretty solid are just too far from the big leagues (in my opinion) to seriously considering using a roster spot at this time.  Grant Sides made this list last year and while he still has some upside as seen by his 11.1 strikeout per nine in High-A this year, just not enough there to warrant as a reliever. Washington and Paulino are a pair of former high prospects with big tools that have just not panned out to this point. If a team thinks either can stick in the big leagues all year in 2016, by all means have at them.

Prediction: None are Rostered

Next: Cleveland Indians Sign Shane Robinson and Moore to Minor League Deals

Conclusion

While the Indians have only four open roster spots, I see the Indians rostering five guys with a sixth a strong possibility.  There are still a couple guys on the current 40-man roster that can be let go, most notably Jerry Sands who could easily be resigned to a minor league deal like Michael Martinez and Adam Moore were.  Michael Choice, Jayson Aquino, C.C. Lee and Tony Wolters would appear to be four others that could be removed should the Tribe decide to roster more than five (or decide they just really like Sands).

For me this is a much stronger Rule 5 class than the Indians had a year ago. I realistically could see the Tribe lose a guy or two this year. Whether those players stick or return I don’t know, but an intriguing mix of bullpens arms and athletic outfielders that could make the Tribe’s final decisions tough.

So who do you think the Cleveland Indians should add before the Rule 5 Draft? Did I miss someone?  What players (if any) do you think should be removed?  Let us know in the comments section below.