Cleveland Indians Pitcher Josh Tomlin Deserves a Rotation Spot

Josh Tomlin Has Earned a Roster Spot

The 2015 season was by far the best year of Josh Tomlin’s career. The veteran starter posted a 3.02 ERA for the Cleveland Indians after his return from a shoulder injury, going 7-2 over the course of ten starts and 65.2 innings. He managed to pitch two complete games, strike out 57 batters, and walk just eight during that time.

Of course, everyone knows that Tomlin’s weakness is not walks or hits, but rather the long ball. His ability to throw his pitches for strikes and keep the bases empty is the only thing that saves him from his propensity to give up home runs. He allowed 13 homers in those 10 starts, and that’s something that’s tricky to get away with.

Tomlin’s home run rate in 2015 was more than twice the league average of 2.5 percent. He allowed 5.2 percent of his plate appearances to end in a homer, while allowing walks to only 3.2 percent of batters. He also had a career-high strikeout rate, at 22.7 percent.

Can Tomlin keep up his success heading into 2016? It’s hard to predict given his shaky past, but there seems to be a positive trend. Since the Tommy John surgery that kept him out of the 2013 season, Tomlin has posted some fairly solid numbers. In 2014, he posted a 4.76 ERA, but even with his excessive home runs, he had a 4.01 FIP. Since FIP is calculated by weighting home runs, walks and strikeouts, Tomlin’s FIP is usually higher than the ERA he posted.

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However, 2014 showed a strikeout rate that jumped from the low teens to over 21 percent, and a walk rate that fell from 5.5 percent in 2012 to just 3.1 percent. This caused his FIP to be lower than his ERA for the first time in his career.

Last season, he posted a 3.02 ERA and a 4.43 FIP. This is almost entirely due to his home run rate. If Tomlin could have kept the ball in the park even half of those times, he would have had a fantastic season. That said, Tomlin is more than capable of replicating the success he’s had in limiting the damage that home runs do to him. In other words, unless he suddenly starts walking every hitter in sight, what he’s doing is working for him, even if it’s unconventional.

The Indians need to bring Josh Tomlin back next year, and not just as a potential candidate for the rotation. After many years of being the one who was sent to Columbus regardless of Spring Training performance, it’s time for Tomlin to be the pitcher who heads into camp as a lock to win a rotation spot, barring an injury or such an abysmal performance the Indians have no choice but to banish him to the bullpen. Tomlin’s skill set is very unique, but he could be a huge help to the team if given the opportunity.

Next: Will Trevor Bauer Ever Become an Ace?

Don’t forget to check out the rest of our season previews, as we wrap up 2015 and look ahead to next year.