Why the Guardians' taxed bullpen will be the X-factor today against the Tigers

Yesterday the Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen helped carry them to a big 6-1 win over the Tigers in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series. And while that performance helped force today’s decisive Game 3, it came at a cost. 

Erik Sabrowski (18 pitches), Hunter Gaddis (20 pitches) and Cade Smith (31 pitches) were forced to pitch for the second straight day. Jakob Junis threw 12 high-intensity pitches; Tim Herrin threw 13. 

While Tanner Bibee did a good job limiting the damage against Detroit’s lineup, the Guardians’ bullpen was forced into action earlier than anyone expected due to him only going 4 2/3 innings. 

Here’s how that bullpen usage could impact things later today. 

The Guardians will need everything they can get out of their taxed bullpen in today’s pivotal game against the Tigers 

Any conversation about the bullpen has to begin with Smith. He’s now thrown 50 pitches over the past 48 hours, which is far and away the most that he’s thrown across back-to-back outings this year.

To put that in perspective, he threw 51 pitches across back-to-back-to-back outings at the beginning of September. 

While the Guardians had a five run lead in the ninth inning, manager Stephen Vogt elected to send Smith out to finish off the game, which while divisive, is an understandable decision.

The Guardians had already used all of their high-leverage relievers, which means that Matt Festa likely would have been tasked with getting the final three outs. Even if Festa would’ve had a five-run lead, it’s hard to imagine anyone in Cleveland feeling good about Festa coming into the game and Smith coming out. 

Normally Smith being unavailable means that Gaddis would come in to finish things off, but he’s thrown 39 pitches across his two outings. Gaddis, Sabrowski and Smith have kept the Tigers off the board across the first two games of the series, but their arms have paid the price. 

That usage could put more pressure on Festa, Joey Cantillo and Kolby Allard — the three pitchers who haven’t appeared in a game so far this postseason. It seemed like Festa pitched in every game this season, but he had a 4.12 ERA in 63 games. He’s not the pitcher you’d want on the mound with a game on the line. 

Allard has been a valuable piece as a longman out of the bullpen, but he has one of the slowest fastballs in baseball and carries value in his ability to provide length, not in wipeout stuff. And Cantillo was one of the team’s best starters across the last month of the season but he struggled a bit out of the bullpen in last year’s postseason. 

All of this could end up becoming a moot point if Slade Cecconi does his job on the mound. Gavin Williams did his job when he pitched six scoreless innings in Game 1 to set the table for Sabrowski, Gaddis and Smith. A start like that from Cecconi would go a long way toward having the Guardians season go longer than Thursday, especially if the bullpen is compromised.