Why the Guardians still believe in Nolan Jones

For a hitter, the line between success and frustration is often a fine one. For Guardians outfielder Nolan Jones, it's been a canyon this season.

His surface-level stat sheet paints a grim picture: a .220 batting average and a .633 OPS that's well below his career averages. But if you dig deeper into his advanced metrics, you'll see a player who's hitting the ball as hard as ever, with a lot of bad luck standing in the way of his success.

The Guardians, a team that famously values a player's underlying data, understand this better than anyone.

Why the Guardians still believe in Nolan Jones

The hard-hit heroics

The most compelling part of Jones's case lies in his contact quality. If you look at the data, one thing is clear: this isn't a slump; it's a series of unfortunate events. His average exit velocity of 91.2 miles per hour and his hard-hit rate ranks in the 79th percentile — both of which are elite marks

This tells us he’s consistently making solid contact and hitting the ball with authority, a skill that can't be taught. He's also hitting the ball at the optimal launch angle, with his sweet-spot rank being in the 72nd percentile alongside a barrel rate in the 51st percentile.

This combination of power and good contact is a recipe for success, and it’s something that most players in the league don’t have. The results just haven't been there yet. That said, he's starting to turn things around, as he mashed two key home runs across the Guardians' last home stand and is finally beginning to turn those raw peripherals into on field success.

A professional approach

Beyond his raw power, Jones is also a smart and patient hitter trait the Guardians have always valued. He ranks in the 73rd percentile in walk rate and the 59th percentile in chase rate, which means he's not swinging at bad pitches, and isn't giving in to the temptation to chase.

He's a patient hitter who's waiting for his pitch, which is a key part of his success. While his surface-level stats may be a cause for concern, his underlying metrics paint a picture of a player who is due for a breakout.

Ultimately, Nolan Jones is a player who has the kind of talent that can't be taught. He has the ability to hit the ball hard, control the strike zone, and make good contact, and the Guardians are a team that values those kinds of players.

While his on-field results may not have been what fans were hoping for, his underlying metrics paint a clear picture of a player who is on the cusp of a breakout. The Guardians are likely to give him every opportunity to succeed next season, and you can expect to see him on their roster for years to come.