What should the Guardians do with Jhonkensy Noel?

On Oct. 17, 2024, Jhonkensy Noel etched himself into Cleveland baseball lore with one swing against the Yankees. 

With the Guardians staring down the barrel of a 3-0 series deficit against the Yankees, Noel sent a poorly-placed changeup into Progressive Field’s bleachers to save a struggling Cleveland offense. 

After running into some slight struggles in the regular season, it was a legacy-defining swing that seemed to set Noel up for a follow-up season filled with success. 

Sound familiar? It should. 

Seven-hundred and forty days before Noel’s huge home run, Oscar González set the precedent when he sent a poorly-placed changeup to Progressive Field's bleachers to send the Guardians to the American League Championship Series. 

And while both players will forever be loved in Cleveland because of those home runs, it seems as if Noel is beginning to fall into the same pitfalls that undid González’s Cleveland tenure.

What should the Guardians do with Jhonkensy Noel?

Noel entered play on Thursday hitting just .155 with two home runs and an OPS+ of 17, meaning that he has been 83% worse than the league-average hitter. 

This year has been a showcase of all of the worst parts of Noel’s game. He’s whiffing too much (34.4% whiff rate), swinging at pitches out of the zone (46.2% chase rate) and not making enough hard contact (.162 expected batting average). 

The swing and miss is a part of Noel’s game, but it’s something the Guardians will deal with everyday of the week if he’s sending balls into orbit. 

If he’s not doing that, then he’s a 6-foot-3 black hole in the lineup. 

Noel’s only had one multi-hit game this year, and has recorded a hit in just 14 of the 43 games he’s played in this year. 

Perhaps the biggest thing working against Noel is his playing time (or lack thereof). Noel’s been in a platoon in right field this year and has only had 97 at-bats in 43 games. In comparison, he had 179 at-bats in 67 games last year.

Noel’s in a platoon because of his struggles against right-handed pitching (he had a .683 OPS against righties last year compared to a .986 against lefties) and his big postseason home run last year came against a leftie in Luke Weaver. 

Noel has a long, powerful swing (77.6 mph bat speed) that seems to look its best when he’s getting everyday at-bats, and the Guardians seem to recognize that. 

“There are things with Jhonkensy in particular with his swing that he could benefit from just more regular playing time,” Guardians executive Chris Antonetti said, per Cleveland.com’s Joe Noga and Paul Hoynes. “But that’s really hard to do at the major league level because we’re trying to win every night and figure out the best matchups to win on any given day.”

And that mentality would make sense if Noel had a platoon partner who was setting the world on fire, but that is very much not the case. 

Noel recorded 41 starts in right field, which is one more than Nolan Jones (40). Daniel Schneemann (four), Will Brennan (four) and Ángel Martínez (three). 

While Jones has been playing better as of late, he’s still only hitting .215 on the year. That’s a large reason why Guardians right fielders have combined for a MLB-low .181 average to go along with a wRC+ of 43. 

A Noel/Jones platoon is oozing with power and potential, but that’s exactly what it’s been so far: potential. 

Brennan’s contact based approach would have been a good foil to Noel and Jone’s more free-swinging profile, but he’s visiting with Dr. Keith Meister about his forearm injury, which is never a good sign. 

It’ll be interesting to see what the Guardians do when Lane Thomas returns from the injured list later this month. They gained some lineup reservations over the weekend by reinstating David Fry from the injured list, which could potentially bring about Noel’s demotion. 

Fry can only play designated hitter (which would eliminate another avenue for playing time for Noel) and Thomas’ reinstatement would displace Martínez in center. The switch-hitting Martínez is a career .300 hitter against left-handed pitching (albeit with one home run), so he could slide into a quasi-platoon with Jones. 

There are also some other options in the minors like Johnathan Rodríguez, CJ Kayfus and Chase DeLauter, but the Guardians have yet to dip into that pool this year outside of five rough at-bats from Rodríguez. 

Right now it seems like the most likely option is that Noel gets sent down to Triple-A when Thomas returns in the hopes that a stint in the minors helps him get his swing right. 

In 2023, González time on the Guardians' roster came to an end less than 60 games into the season because of his inability to make quality contact and lay off pitches out of the zone. 

Sound familiar?