This ace Guardians reliever should be next in line to receive contract extension

Extending Cade Smith should be the most pressing need for the Guardians this offseason. It may seem like that is stating the obvious, which it pretty much is, but Smith is going to be a very wealthy man very soon if his on-field performance and health don't deteriorate.

While the Guardians operate with one of MLB’s stingiest payrolls, the hope is that the future of Luis Ortiz and Emmanuel Clase’s paid leave will be settled by spring training. If that’s the case, the Guardians should earmark the money they were planning on spending on Clase toward a Smith extension.

Which brings us to the multi-million dollar question: What is Smith’s magic number?

The good news for the Guardians is that Smith is in his final pre-arbitration season, which means that he’s still four seasons away from free agency and is also set to make a little more than the league minimum in 2026.

While the Guardians were always going to have to navigate Smith’s arbitration, his price tag was going to be cheaper when he was a set-up man due to the lack of saves he had under his belt.

Now, with him working as Cleveland’s full-time closer, he’s going to get more saves, which will drive up his price in arbitration, should he get there. Relievers arbitration salaries are driven up higher with save totals.

Smith was one of the best relievers in all of baseball by the numbers in his rookie 2024 campaign, earning him a down-ballot Cy Young vote while accumulating 2.7 fWAR in the process. He followed that up by posting a second straight 2.7 fWAR campaign this past season and nailing down 16 saves.

According to FanGraphs dollars projection on what a player would earn in free agency, the last two seasons of Cade Smith combined would be worth $43.2 million — $21.5 million in 2024 and $21.7 million in ‘25.

Smith also knows this, which could lead to him eschewing extension talks entirely. However, in that same vein, there are plenty of cautionary tales of relievers like Tanner Scott or even former Guardians legend Cody Allen suddenly hitting a downward spiral.

The Guardians need to add Cade Smith to their long-term core

If we’re going off history, it’s easy to imagine that any contract that Cleveland would offer would probably be along the lines of a five-year in length, with at least one club option and escalators built in.

That brings us back to the question of how much money it would take to sign Smith? While the amount of the contract will ultimately matter, Average Annual Value likely won’t matter as much as any potential contract covering multiple years both through guaranteed years and club options.

Given how FanGraphs has valued Smith’s first two seasons in MLB, I imagine Smith uses his leverage to secure $5 or $10 million more in guaranteed cash with a five-year, $35 million extension with a club option in exchange for the extra cash.

That contract would allow for Smith to lock in some guarantees, while the Guardians would be able to continue to bank on him continuing his run as one of the best relievers in the sport without having to worry about his rising price tag.

Cleveland is projected to have one of the lowest payrolls in all of baseball, and they typically move off pitchers at the right time. Smith presents a bit of a different case, however.

The Guardians and Smith agreeing to a long-term extension would be a win for both sides. The Guardians would get cost certainty and be able to secure a key piece of the roster for the long-term, while Smith would get a small fortune well maintaining the ability to earn more depending on the contracts remaining structure.