Rotation projection for Guardians has Triston McKenzie in less than ideal position

When it comes to how the Cleveland Guardians will put together their starting rotation on Opening Day, most agree on the arms that will make up this group. The only real discussion happens after Tanner Bibee's spot as to who will be slotted into the second through fifth spots in the rotation. A recent projection of which spot Triston McKenzie might occupy when the season begins can only be considered far from encouraging.

In the latest update to Joel Reuter's Predicting Every MLB Team's 2025 Opening Day Starting Rotation, Version 4.0 on Bleacher Report, McKenzie is listed as Cleveland's fifth starter behind Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Ben Lively, and Luis Ortiz. Being listed after Bibee and Williams is certainly understandable, maybe even Ortiz too, but to be the fifth starter after a pitcher of Lively's caliber is not a scenario that anyone would have dreamed possible a few years ago. 

Even more concerning is this excerpt regarding McKenzie's status on the roster. "Triston McKenzie is out of minor league options, so expect him to be on the Opening Day roster in some capacity, though Logan Allen could push him for the fifth starter job.", writes Reuter, as he entertains the possibility that McKenzie might even get bumped from the rotation in favor of Logan Allen. This would be a pretty big development for McKenzie's career and not one of the positive variety.

Spring training has not gone particularly well for McKenzie, allowing six runs on nine hits and five walks in 6.1 innings across three appearances. This is far from ideal and only reinforces the chances of McKenzie being Clevleand's number five starter or even being omitted from their rotation entirely.

The last two seasons have been troubling for McKenzie, as injuries and poor performance have been the most common themes. McKenzie has posted a 5.11 ERA and 1.568 WHIP in 91.2 innings across 20 starts in that span, a far cry from the 3.68 ERA and 1.027 WHIP during his first three seasons (64 games, 60 starts, 344.2 innings pitched).

If McKenzie can work his way back and reestablish himself as a quality major league starter, it would be an impressive feat from someone who appeared to be on borrowed time with his original organization. If not, well, that seems pretty self-explanatory. McKenzie's time in Cleveland would come to an end and would be another big what could have been to add to the list.