Predicting the outcome for every arbitration-eligible Guardians player

While the Guardians started their roster cutdown earlier this week with some largely procedural roster moves, the rest of the offseason could be a whirlwind for Cleveland given their impending arbitration decisions. The Guardians may be one of baseball’s best at building from within, it always seems like they don’t have a ton of arbitration decisions to make — largely because they trade players away before they get too expensive. 

That isn’t the case this year, as the Guardians are staring down the barrel of numerous key arbitration decisions this winter. The obvious elephant in the room is the impending lockout, which is going to have a huge impact on the Hot Stove and could even result in an upheaval of the current arbitration system. 

But, with all that in mind, here’s our predictions for what the Guardians will do with every arbitration-eligible player. All contract totals are based on the model created by MLB Trade Rumors’ Matt Swartz. 

The Guardians could restructure their roster this winter

Steven Kwan ($11.3 million): Kwan’s been the heartbeat of the Guardians’ lineup since he made his big league debut in 2022, but we could be quickly approaching the end of his time in Cleveland. 

The Guardians have held off trading him at multiple points over the past 18 months, but that rubber could meet the road soon since he’s set to be a free agent after 2027 and is about to make the most he’s ever made in his career via arbitration. 

That formula may have been the impetus for plenty of trades involving former Guardians in the past, but that may not happen with Kwan due to how important he is to Cleveland’s lineup. 

Prediction: The Guardians hold onto Kwan, but that doesn’t stop his name from floating in trade rumors throughout the summer. 

Jo Adell ($9.6 million): The Guardians added Adell at the trade deadline in the hopes he’d bring some power to Cleveland’s lineup, and he did exactly that — albeit with the same warts that he had during his time with the Angels. Adell recorded 40 RBI in Cleveland across 59 games in the regular season and postseason, but he also finished the year with a .588 OPS against right-handers in his time with Cleveland.  

The Guardians aren’t going to non-tender him, but they may try to flip him at some point before the start of 2027. 

Prediction: The Guardians trade Adell after the lockout ends. 

Cade Smith ($5.5 million): This year marks Smith’s first time working through arbitration, and he’s due for a pretty large payday due to the amount of saves he’s racked up since Emmanuel Clase was placed on leave. 

Smith’s not going anywhere, but high projected salary is even more confirmation the Guardians need to sign him to a contract extension. 

Predication: The Guardians and Smith agree to a three-year, $32 million contract that covers all his arbitration seasons. 

Gavin Williams ($4.8 million): Another important and (relatively) expensive pitcher. Williams showed his ace potential in 2026 and is in line for another strong season in 2027 so long as he stays healthy. 

He’s a Scott Boras client so the chances of him signing a contract extension seem slim. Enjoy the ride while he’s here. 

Predication: Williams and the Guardians agree on a salary figure around Swartz’s projection. 

Brayan Rocchio ($3.1 million): While ‘Rocctober’ never really happened this fall, the 2026 regular season was the best of his career, as he posted a .705 OPS while playing solid defense. But that production came when he was making the league minimum, not $3 million. 

The Guardians have an infield logjam, and getting rid of Rocchio would be the quickest way to fix it. 

Prediction: The Guardians agree to an arbitration figure with Rocchio but trade him at some point during 2027. 

Patrick Bailey ($2.3 million): This figure would be a discount for Bailey based on his defense alone, but he seemed to turn a corner in the postseason. The Guardians have a strong catching pipeline, but Bailey’s the top dog for now. This one is a no-brainer. 

Prediction: Bailey and the Guardians agree on a salary figure around Swartz’s projection. 

Colin Holderman ($2.3 million): While Holderman had a disastrous 2025 campaign with the Pirates due to a variety of injuries, he was able to get to being a shutdown reliever in Cleveland.While he ended up missing the final month of the season due to a wrist injury, he already had surgery to address it and told reporters his career “starts in 2027.” 

Although the Guardians technically signed him to a one-year deal last winter, that gave them the ability to control him in 2027 and ‘28 via arbitration. A nifty little piece of accounting. 

Prediction: Holderman and the Guardians agree on a salary figure around Swartz’s projection. 

Hunter Gaddis ($2.2 million): Gaddis may not be on the same level as Smith, but he’s a valuable part of the Guardians’ bullpen who has no problem taking the ball multiple days in a row. His struggles in the postseason are still scary, but he’d be a clear bargain at this price. 

Prediction: Gaddis and the Guardians agree on a salary figure around Swartz’s projection. 

Slade Cecconi ($2 million): Cecconi has proven that he can be a valuable back-end piece in the Guardians’ rotation, but he ended the year in the bullpen after the Guardians acquired Foster Griffin. 

While that spot opened up again when Griffin hit free agency, the Guardians could still bring in a pitcher or two in free agency. That could be it for Cecconi. 

Prediction: The Guardians trade Cecconi to a pitching-needy team for a prospect. 

David Fry ($1.9 million): Fry may have one of the biggest home runs in Guardians’ postseason history, but he’s also hit just .188 in the two seasons since. He got a bit of a pass in 2025 since he was still recovering from Tommy John surgery, but things weren’t much better this season. 

Fry can still play all over the diamond, but his bench spot would be better utilized by someone with a little more pop. 

Prediction: The Guardians non-tender Fry. 

Matt Festa ($1.5 million): Festa’s drawn a ton of ire from Guardians’ fans in the past two seasons, but he also holds some value as an everyday pitching option. Plus it’s clear Stephen Vogt likes him. You may not like it, but it’s hard to see a world where Festa isn’t on the Guardians in 2027. 

Prediction: Festa and the Guardians agree on a salary figure around Swartz’s projection. 

Tim Herrin ($1.3 million): Herrin had another up-and-down season in 2026, but he was able to right the ship late and finished the season with a 1.20 ERA in his last 15 innings. Herrin has been a valuable high-leverage lefty, and getting him at this price tag would still be a discount even with his command issues. 

Prediction: Herrin and the Guardians agree on a salary figure around Swartz’s projection. 

Blake Perkins ($900,000): Last but not least we have Perkins. While he didn’t play a big league inning for the Guardians after they acquired him from the Brewers at the trade deadline, he holds some value as a fourth outfielder thanks to his speed and defense. 

He’ll make his Guardians debut at some point during 2027. 

Prediction: Perkins and the Guardians agree on a salary figure around Swartz’s projection. 

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