White Sox vs Guardians prediction and odds for Friday, August 4 (Reversal of Fortune)

Both the Guardians and White Sox were swept this week after splitting their four-game series last weekend.
Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Logan Allen (41)
Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Logan Allen (41) / Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

We’ve seen this matchup before, actually just a week ago when Mike Clevinger and the Chicago White Sox beat Logan Allen and the Cleveland Guardians. The White Sox are now 43-67 and the Guardians are 53-56 because both teams got swept since they last met, but now they’re back for a three-game set in Cleveland after four games in Chicago that they split last week.

Clevinger comes in off that win at 4-4 with a 3.59 ERA in 13 starts while Allen is 4-4 with a 3.70 ERA. The Guardians are home favorites in this one, so we should take a look at the odds for this AL Central matchup.

White Sox vs. Guardians odds, run line and total

White Sox vs. Guardians prediction and pick

When they faced off last week Clevinger went five scoreless only allowing two hits in a 7-2 White Sox win. He had three strikeouts and no walks in that one, but for the season he has 56 Ks and 26 free passes issued in 67.2 innings. That’s a concerning strikeout rate and a bit of a high walk rate too which combine to give him a 4.67 FIP. I expect the roles to reverse in this game because I’m seeing a really rough start coming for Clevinger against Cleveland’s left-hand-heavy lineup.

Clevinger doesn’t have vastly different platoon splits this year, but lefty hitters do have a .741 OPS against him and righties a .711. The bigger difference is in his K/BB ratio which drops from 3.18 vs. righties to 1.40 against lefties.

Logan Allen, the lefty will have a much better time navigating the Chicago offense that has a lot of right-handed bats. The White Sox are 19th in OPS against lefties, but struck for five runs on eight hits over six innings against Allen last time. Allen has allowed four of his 10 home runs this year in his last two starts which is a concern, but I think he’ll keep the ball in the ballpark and the Guardians will cruise behind him today.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change