Two Guardians named in Top 50 trade candidates

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Trade season is here and there will be some intrigue regarding exactly what the Cleveland Guardians will do. Arguments can be made for the team to go in either direction considering that they largely underperformed for the majority of the season. Even with how they have played Cleveland is still only 1.5 games back from the American League Central divison leading MInnesota Twins, making this situation all the more complicated.

Should the Guardians not be able to make up enough ground by the trade deadline, they could end up in a position to sell. The good news is that if they end up having to go down the road of trading away players at the deadline, they would be dealing from a position that usually commands a return that can be somewhat substantial. Pitching.

Two of Cleveland's pitchers in their starting rotation were named in MLB Trade Rumors' Top 50 Deadline Trade Candidates: Early July Edition. It is important to note that the list has the following preface in regards to how it was compiled.

As we do every summer, MLBTR will look at the top deadline candidates. This is not a strict ranking of players’ trade value, nor is it solely about likelihood of being moved. We’re trying to balance both of those things, which inherently involves subjectivity. A player in the top ten might have significantly less appeal than someone at the bottom of the list, but if they’re far more likely to be dealt for a return of some note, they’ll be higher on this kind of ranking.
Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors

20. Aaron Civale

This does not necessarily come as a surprise. Aaron Civale is a solid, but unspectacular starter that could help raise the floor of a contender's rotation. This is what was said about Civale and his performance this year.

The 28-year-old righty has been more of a back-of-the-rotation type throughout his career. This year’s 2.96 ERA over eight starts is more attributable to batted ball and sequencing fortune than an overhaul in his approach. Civale is a control specialist with a 3.95 ERA in just shy of 400 career innings. It’s #4 starter production on a rate basis, although he’s battled injuries and never topped 125 MLB frames in a single season. Civale is making $2.6MM this year and eligible for arbitration twice more thereafter.
Anthony Franco on Aaron Civale

From Cleveland's perspective they do have a few reasons to at least listen, if not outright trade Civale. Those would be Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, and Logan Allen. The presence of these three young arms means that the Guardians would not suddenly find themselves with lack of pitching should they trade Civale.

In fact, there is a scenario where Clevleand is a team that could end up making the posteason and still trade Civale. This way the Guardians would be able to open up a rotation spot for Allen to return to the majors while at the same time getting something in return to improve the team elsewhere.

8. Shane Bieber

The will they or won't they that has surrounded the Cleveland Guardians and the status of Shane Bieber has found itself on this list. Bieber is the fifth-ranked starting pitcher appearing in this Top 50 list, behind Lucas Giolito, Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, and Marcus Stroman.

It is noted that a trade of the Guardians ace may not be in the form of a haul of prospects and could follow similar trade packages of the past.

Trading Bieber strictly for prospects seems unlikely, but Cleveland could shop him in an effort to inject some life into the offense. Adding controllable outfield talent could be particularly welcome. It’s a script Cleveland has followed on a few occasions in the past. Corey Kluber, Trevor, Bauer, and Mike Clevinger have all been shipped off as the organization’s pitching development pipeline churns out similarly productive and less expensive young pitchers.
Anthony Franco on Shane Bieber

Bieber's drop in dominance and velocity were also mentioned, two notable areas that anyone who has watched the Guardians the past few seasons is quite aware of.

Bieber hasn’t been as dominant as he was a few years back. His velocity hasn’t been the same since a 2021 shoulder injury and this year’s 19.3% strikeout rate is the first below-average mark of his career. Even if he’s no longer a Cy Young caliber hurler, Bieber looks the part of an effective #3 type. He’s sixth in the majors with 110 2/3 innings pitched and sports a 3.66 ERA with plus control and a solid 46.3% grounder rate. The right-hander is making a hair over $10MM this season and is eligible for arbitration once more before hitting free agency.
Anthony Franco on Shane Bieber

While Bieber may not be the true ace that teams get a haul for in the past, the 28-year old would stlll command a return that would be noteworthy to say the least. A trade package that features talent now and for the future much like their previous dealings with San Diego seems to be the ideal path forward.

Perhaps Cleveland could attach Amed Rosario to a trade sending Bieber elsewhere to help boost the return a little. In this scenario it would be the Guardians shaking things up in the infield while hopefully getting a major league hitter in exchange that has some much needed thump in his profile.