Sean Murphy is a nearly perfect trade target for the Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians’ Current Catching Situation

Austin Hedges became a free agent after the World Series ended. He was signed to a one-year, $4 million contract last offseason, and given his offensive production, cannot expect much of a raise for 2023. Even at a reduced price, the Guardians would be wise to consider moving on if they can find a suitable upgrade.

One possible avenue to upgrade comes internally. Bo Naylor, the Guardians' #5 prospect according to MLB.com debuted at the end of 2022, and ended up making their postseason roster as a third catcher. Naylor has improved dramatically as a defender since being drafted in the first round in 2018, and he seems to clearly be the future for the Guardians behind the plate.

However, after struggling offensively in 2021, the timeline for him to make an impact at the major-league level was pushed back. After reworking his swing entering 2022, he hit .263 with 21 home runs and 68 RBI, even adding 20 stolen bases. He projects as an elite offensive catcher, with excellent defense and an above-average arm. However, catchers are notoriously slow to develop, and counting on him to be the primary catcher in 2022 may be premature. It seems wise to pair Naylor with another catcher who he can split duties with and be used part-time as a DH to keep him fresh and allow his bat to continue to develop.

Guardians Trade Target: Sean Murphy

Sean Murphy seems like a nearly perfect fit for the Guardians to pursue this offseason. He fits perfectly into what the Guardians are building. He is a Gold Glove-caliber catcher, having won the award in 2021. And he reduced his strikeout rate by 6.6% in 2022 on his way to hitting .250 with 18 home runs and 66 RBI. Thus, he would fit well with the Guardians’ high-contact approach, and provide an enormous upgrade over Hedges and Maile offensively. At 27 years old, he is entering his prime and should be expected to maintain this level of production for another 3-4 years.

Payroll considerations may take the Guardians out of the running for free agent upgrades such as Willson Contreras. However, even as Murphy enters arbitration, his salary is only projected to increase to $3.5 million, which amazingly actually makes him a cost-saving option in relation to what Cleveland paid Hedges last year.

The A’s went 60-102 last year, and are clearly in rebuilding mode. They are not likely to compete in at least the next 1-2 years, so by the time they are able to field a competitive roster, Murphy will be significantly more expensive, and close to 30 years old. Between their own propensity for trading players as they approach free agency, and the likelihood of catchers declining once they pass 30 years old, it would make sense for them to maximize the prospect return by trading him now, at a lower financial cost and with more years of control remaining than to wait until he is closer to becoming a free agent.

Can the Guardians Afford Murphy?

While Murphy would provide some cost savings in 2023, the Guardians are certainly aware that his salary will continue to escalate through his arbitration years. This should not be as much of a concern for them in the years to come as it has been recently. The Guardians’ new minority owner David Blitzer joined their ownership group with a 25% share and the option to become a majority owner in six years. Blitzer brought credibility and sports experience to the Cleveland ownership group – he also owns NBA, NHL and multiple soccer franchises. There has been speculation that the Guardians will become more active in free agency due to his influence, but locking up their own pre-arbitration or arbitration-eligible players also becomes a more consistent option for them. While in years past, a player entering arbitration may have been a non-starter in trade discussion, look for the Guardians to be more diverse in how they pursue talent moving forward.

Financials aside, there is still the question of prospect cost, and the Guardians match up well with the A’s there, too. The A’s have an elite catching prospect in Shea Langeliers, who they acquired from Atlanta in the Matt Olson trade last March, so they will not require a direct replacement for Murphy. Meanwhile, the Guardians have a farm system that is overstocked with young talent. Cleveland has the third-ranked minor-league system in baseball according to MLB.com, and believe it or not, that may be too low. Many of their prospects are undervalued because prospect rankings depress contact-first players such as Steven Kwan and Will Brennan and pitchers who pitch to contact, who the Guardians value more than other franchises.

A trade for Murphy won’t come cheap. The A’s trade for Olsen provides a nice template for what it might take. Oakland got four prospects back from the Braves, two of them in the top 100 in baseball, though none were in the top 50. The A’s would probably start with one of the Guardians pitching prospects – #3 prospect Gavin Williams (#53 overall) makes sense for both teams. Nolan Jones would have been more valuable to the A’s than to the Guardians - at least before his trade to the Rockies this week - as his primary position is third base and would make a palatable second prospect to add. The Guardians could also offer Jose Tena, who is a projectable middle 21-year-old infield prospect, but is behind multiple other prospects right now. They could close out the deal offering a lower-level outfield prospect or any number of pitching prospects.

Four or five prospects is a steep cost, even to a deep minor-league system. However, the Guardians' minor-league system is stocked with players that will provide a pipeline for them at nearly every position over the next few years. If they could add Murphy and pair him with Naylor for the next 2-3 years without giving up any of their top prospects who are close to the majors, they should be willing to make the move.

Meanwhile, the A’s will likely be looking for players who will be ready to contribute in 2-3 years. On paper, this seems like a nearly perfect match, and certainly one that is fun to think about as the rumors start to fly this offseason.