Royals vs. Guardians prediction and odds for Wednesday, July 26 (Value on total)

The Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Guardians have split the first two games of their series this week, with the Guardians winning 5-1 on Tuesday night.

Cleveland is a game below .500 (50-51) on the season and just three games out of the top spot in the AL Central heading into Wednesday night’s game. The Royals, on the other hand, are just 29-74 on the season and one of the worst teams to bet on this season.

Best moneyline teams this MLB season:

O's 61-38, +18.0 units
Reds 55-46, +14.9
Brewers 55-45, +7.7
Red Sox 53-46, +6.0
Tigers 45-54, +5.9

Worst teams:

Padres 48-52, -17.8
Mets 45-52, -18.2
White Sox 41-60, -18.3
A's 28-74, -26.2
Royals 28-73, -31.8 units

Data per @Bet_Labs
— John Ewing (@johnewing) July 24, 2023

Cleveland youngster Gavin Williams (1-2, 3.74 ERA) gets the ball in this game against Kansas City’s Alec Marsh (0-4, 6.20 ERA). Williams has two starts against the Royals this season, and he’s pitched well in those outings, allowing just three runs and nine hits in 12.2 innings of work.

Can he put together another strong performance on Wednesday?

Here are the latest odds and my best bet for this matinee matchup:

Royals vs. Guardians odds, run line and total

Royals vs. Guardians prediction and pick

If there’s one thing we know about these teams, it is that they have both struggled on offense this season.

The Royals rank 29th in OPS and 29th in runs scored this season, and the Guardians haven’t been much better, ranking 24th in both of those categories.

Even with this matchup between two young pitchers, I think there is some value on the UNDER in this game with the total all the way up at 10.

Williams’ first outing against the Royals was an absolute gem, as he allowed just one hit in seven innings in a no decision. He followed that up with 5.2 innings of work where he gave up eight hits and three runs, striking out seven.

Marsh has struggled in 2023, posting a Fielding Independent Pitching of 7.96, yet the Royals have only gone over 10 runs in one of his four outings.

Kansas City simply doesn’t score enough runs for me to go over in this game, especially when the first two games of this series had eight and six runs combined.

I’ll trust Williams to keep this game low scoring.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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