We've got a pitching rematch of a 6-5 Cleveland victory last week as Cal Quantrill will face Marco Gonzales once again. The Guardians have seven consecutive victories behind Quantrill and hope to maintain their hot start offensively.
Both Gonzales and Quantrill struggled in that first game, though Gonzales' track record is worse than Quantrill's historically.
I see value in backing Cleveland to pick up another win behind their veteran right-hander, though let's take a look at the odds before I explain why.
Mariners vs. Guardians Odds, Spread, and Total
Mariners vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick
The Mariners are off to a dreadful start, losing five of six heading into yesterday's games, including three straight losses at the hands of these Guardians to start the year. Cleveland, meanwhile, had won five of six and picked up right where they left off in winning the AL Central last year.
I believe in Quantrill more than Gonzales, who posted a 5.05 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) last year and a 5.28 mark the year prior. Quantrill had a more respectable 4.12 and 4.07, and his consistency gives Cleveland an edge in this matchup.
Dating back to last season, the Mariners are just 3-4 in Gonzales' last seven starts as their opponent scored at least five runs in five of those seven contests. Cleveland, meanwhile, is 17-1 in Quantrill's last 18 starts. The Guardians covered the run line 12 times in that stretch, and I love getting plus money for that trend to continue.
Back Cleveland on the run line as the Guardians take advantage of Gonzales' struggles while Quantrill steadies himself in his second start of the year.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.