Guardians vs Tigers - Breaking down the AL Central showdown in the ALDS

After a few days of waiting to find out who their opponent will be, the Cleveland Guardians now know that they will be welcoming an AL Central foe to town this coming Saturday. Following their two-game sweep of the Houston Astros, the Detroit Tigers will be Cleveland's opponent in the American League Division Series beginning this weekend.

As division rivals, these two teams have already seen plenty of each other this season, and they know each other quite well. But which team has the advantage in this series?

Head-to-head matchup

The Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers faced each other 13 times this season, and it was a near split between the two ballclubs. Cleveland won seven games compared to Detroit's six. In those matchups, the Tigers do hold a 10-run advantage in total runs scored (60-50), but most of that comes from a 10-1 loss to Detroit in mid-July. When that game is removed from the equation, it is only a two-run difference between the two ballclubs, which is a better indicator of how close their matchups were this season.

Expecting anything other than a close series would be a mistake. These two teams have plenty of information on each other and have played their fair share of close matchups this season. Hopefully, Cleveland's success against Detroit in the regular season carries over into the postseason, allowing the Guardians to advance.

Comparing the pitching of the Guardians and Tigers

Just like the hitting stats from each team, the Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers' pitching numbers are also very similar.

Cleveland: 3.61 ERA, 1,428 innings pitched, 1.20 WHIP, 1,224 hits allowed, 572 earned runs, 179 home runs given up, 492 walks, 1,410 strikeouts in 161 games.

Detroit: 3.61 ERA, 1,447 innings pitched, 1.16 WHIP, 1,265 hits allowed, 581 earned runs, 159 home runs given up, 416 walks, 1,354 strikeouts in 162 games.

Again, these overall stat lines from the pitching staff are very close, with a few differences between the two teams. The Guardians have struck out more batters but have also allowed more home runs and baserunners via the base on balls this season, not exactly a great combo for the postseason. The Tigers have allowed more hits than Cleveland but have the edge in the walks and home runs allowed, which may make it difficult for the Guardians offense to score consistently.

Of course, each team's pitching staff cannot be discussed without mentioning the likely top two finishers in American League Cy Young voting in Tarik Skubal and Emmanuel Clase. Skubal has experienced a breakout year for Detroit as the ace of their staff and is likely to win the Cy Young this season. Meanwhile, Clase has been the anchor at the back end of Cleveland's bullpen, closing games with relative ease on a consistent basis. It is difficult to compare the impact of a starter and a closer, but Clase should be available to pitch in most, if not every game, while Skubal's appearances will be limited. It would not be entirely surprising to see Clase impacting this series more than Skuba due to the role each player is in, but the Guardians will have to get themselves in a position to insert him into a game while Skubal will be starting which game(s) he does appear in during this series.

Final thoughts

This is a series of two relatively evenly matched teams. There are more than a few statistical similarities between these two teams, and it should make for an entertaining series between two ballclubs that are only a few hours away from one another.

The one thing yet to be mentioned here is fatigue. Of course, the Guardians got a chance to rest up for a few days while preparing for the upcoming ALDS while the Tigers had to battle it out with the Houston Astros in the Wild Card round. This alone should not matter all that much, but when evaluating how each time got to this point, that is when fatigue could play a factor.

Detroit required an improbable run to qualify for the playoffs, one that needed the team to play almost perfectly for an extended period of time. As impressive as this accomplishment is, having to play like this will eventually catch up to a team and result in their time in the postseason coming to a close.

When evaluating how Cleveland got here, they clinched the American League Central division in mid-September and were able to secure a top-two spot in the AL Playoffs as the season winded down. The Guardians also experienced highs and lows throughout the season, most notably a few lows during the final two months. While that does not sound that great, what the Guardians were able to do was avoid peaking too early, something that many attribute 2018's early exit to.

Granted, coming in flat is not ideal either, as that could also result in being eliminated earlier than they should. However, going through the ebbs and flows, the ups and downs, etc., over the season's final stretch, in addition to having a few days to rest up, should bode well for them in their quest for a deep playoff run. A run that should hopefully end the longest active championship drought in the sport. But before that can be on the table, they must get past Detroit first, and that is something that seems very doable for the Guardians.

ALDS Game 1 between the Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers is scheduled for Saturday, October 5th at 1:08 PM.