The Guardians send Noah Syndergaard to the mound today for his fourth start with the club to take on Andrew Abbott and the Cincinnati Reds.
Syndergaard has struggled this season with a 7.14 ERA, but held the Blue Jays to one run in his last outing, while Abbot started the year strong but has a 7.61 ERA in his last three outings.
With a beautiful day in the forecast at Great American Ball Park, I think we're in for an offensive explosion from both teams and love the over in the contest as a result.
I'll explain why below, but first, let's secure you a GUARANTEED win with Bet365's exclusive Ohio promo. If you sign up with this link, deposit at least $10, then bet $1 or more on the game, you'll win $200 in bonus bets whether you win or lose!
Now that you've locked in a guaranteed win, let's look at the odds and my best bet.
Guardians vs. Reds Odds, Spread and Total
Guardians vs. Reds Prediction and Pick
Underlying metrics for both starting pitchers suggest the offenses will put runs on the board today. Abbott's biggest issues of late are with his command, as he's walked eight batters in his last 14 1/3 innings. Looking deeper, he's compiled an xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) of 4.77 or higher in six of his last eight outings.
Cleveland's lineup emphasizes putting the ball in play and making contact, which is a problem for Abbott as well. He ranks in the 10th percentile in average exit velocity, so the Guardians' lineup has an advantage whether Abbott is throwing strikes or not.
On the other end, Syndergaard has been one of MLB's worst starting pitchers this year. He's got an xFIP of 5.22 or worse in each of his last six starts and the over is 7-1 in his last eight outings. His pitching profile from Baseball Savant leaves much to be desired.
Neither Syndergaard nor Abbot expect to go deep into the contest, putting pressure on a pair of taxed bullpens, too.
In the Guardians' last four games as road underdogs, the over is 3-1. Trust each offense to break out and keep that trend rolling in a game that soars over the 9.5 total.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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