Guardians Trade Targets - It's time for Chris Antonetti to spend from the deep farm system

The Cleveland Guardians are struggling. That's not a sentence that many would have imagined reading and believing with conviction based on the teams magical 2022 season. A season that saw the youngest team in baseball propel itself into the American League Divisional Series. That team played with reckless abandon, terrorizing opposing teams with smart base running and a savvy ability to get on base by any means possible.

That team and the 2023 Guardians could not be any farther apart in the universe than they currently are. The season so far has been one filled with frustration, heartbreak, and generally weird and (almost unbelievably) bad sequencing. The team hits, the pitching implodes. The pitching is dynamite, the offense is scarce. A baseball fans equivalent of a Hitchcock script, but the twists and turns are becoming predictable.

While the season is by no means a lost cause, serious changes need to be considered to bring this stumbling team to life. Save for José Ramírez (and more recently, Josh Naylor) consistent offensive production with thump has nay been found. Josh Bell is walking at a rate of 13.8%, but only slugging .335. That's not quite enough to justify his two-year, $33,000,000 million dollar contract. It's no secret that Bell is a historically streaky hitter, but this is nearing Eric Hosmer levels of under-performing expectations.

On top of a confounding list of problems that keep seeming to pile up, the Guardians are getting next to no pop out of their outfielders. Oscar Gonzalez struggled to find spark and was optioned on May 6th to Triple-A Columbus. Will Brennan, Myles Straw, and Steven Kwan have (unsurprisingly) struggled to put the ball over the fence as well. If not for some recent power from Gabriel Arias, the Guardians' outfield slugging is dismal at best. Arias is a natural shortstop, for the record.

No matter the team's recent struggles, some rather difficult decisions lie ahead for Chris Antonetti and company. For as much praise that they deserve for carefully crafting a brilliant young pitching core, the front office decisions surrounding other positions on the team deserve to be called into question. Mike Zunino has been a black hole at catcher, both offensively and defensively, and Amed Rosario is on pace to have the worst defensive season of his career and not even produce offensively at league average.

The organizations internal options for those gaping holes have already been discussed ad-nauseum. Bo Naylor, George Valera, Brayan Rocchio, etc. The fanbase is rabid for an injection of life into a corpse, but is Chris Antonetti ready to commit to such drastic changes? Rosario is set to be an unrestricted free agent at the conclusion of the 2023 season in what is set to be a relatively weak free agent class for shortstops. Previous team moves would suggest they will part ways with Rosario and turn to internal options to fill the vacant middle-infield role. As far as catching, Bo Naylor is the future backstop for years to come, but Cam Gallagher and Mike Zunino are blocking his path -- for now.

When the need for something you do not possess arises, you simply buy it. In baseball, talent is economical buying power. The Guardians front office has been meticulous in developing a core of promising middle infielders with Brayan Rocchio and Angel Martínez leading the way in terms of future stars. Rocchio showcased his sharp defensive prowess during his short stint in Cleveland and his bat has always shown promise in the minors. Martínez may wind up being even better if given the appropriate development time. The team obviously thinks highly of both, as they are both on the team's 40-man roster.

With George Valera on the injured list and his debut in Cleveland seemingly in limbo
, here are five trade pieces that the Guardians should target aggressively. Any one of these will immediately add some thump to the corner outfield lineup spot.

2. Jo Adell - OF, Los Angeles Angels.

Every now and then, a player needs a change of scenery. Whether it's due to organizational mismanagement or just improper timing, some young players that struggle to catch fire can find flame elsewhere. Jo Adell is a prime candidate for this, and the Angels asking price for him may never be cheaper than it is right now.

For context, the Angels traded for Hunter Renfroe in the off-season and Adell didn't even break camp with the team to start the season. This is likely due in part to his continued struggles at the Major League level with plate discipline. In 2022, he struck out at a massive 37.5% of the time and only slugged .373 with the Angels in 285 plate appearances.

His profile will always lend itself to being one that is strikeout heavy. But unless the slugging is there, that is not a dichotomy that many teams would suffer for long-term. Adell is smashing the ball at Triple-A this season, slugging at a .610 clip. The natural power profile is there and if the Guardians truly believe in their contact-first approach to hitting, Adell is primed to succeed and learn plate discipline under Chris Valika and company.

Jo Adell won't give you anything special on the defensive end of the game, but that's okay. Teams will sometimes suffer terrible defense in exchange for the long ball i.e. Kyle Schwarber in Philly. Adell is nowhere near that level of treacherous, but he's not going to win a gold glove anytime soon either. However; he does make some nice plays, like this:

He also does this, A LOT:

The Angels need pitching if they are going to contend in the American League West, a division that has seen the rapid rise of the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers. That means this trade again revolves around capitalizing on Shane Bieber's value and remaining team control. Cleveland would send Bieber to LA and in return receive Adell, Ky Bush, Sam Bachman and Ben Joyce. Joyce is by far the most appealing part of this trade (aside from Adell,) features an 80-grade fastball, and would be a worthy flamethrower candidate for any bullpen - especially given the sudden regression of James Karinchak.

This deal nets you a power hitting OF for years to come with all three arbitration years remaining, and some very nice pitching depth replenishment for the farm system. With uncertainty surrounding Hunter Renfroe's impending free agency at the end of the 2023 season, the Angels may be inclined to hang on to Adell unless they believe that a deal for Bieber would propel them into serious divisional contention. Regardless, he's a nice trade target that can drive the ball a long way both in the pull and opposite directions.

3. Colton Cowser - OF, Baltimore Orioles.

The Guardians do not need more left handed hitters as the team has struggled in 2023 to hit versus left-handed pitching, but exceptions can be made for the right talent. Colton Cowser is that exception. The 6'2", 220lb left handed hitter could be a key piece of what Cleveland needs right now if Antonetti and company could get a deal done. Baltimore is in an extremely competitive division in the AL East, and that division is showing no signs of slowing down in being one of the most competitive pennant races in MLB history. Heavy competition will drive Baltimore to be buyers at the trade deadline this season.

Cowser is having a nice season so far at Triple-A Norfolk. In 37 games with the Tides, he's batting .331/.469/.554 but what is even more impressive so far in the young season are his platoon splits.

That's right, he's smashing left-handed pitching better than he is versus right-handed pitching. This would be a welcome addition in Cleveland if he could maintain these splits at the Major League level, or at least keep it close to what he's doing currently. His profile boasts the same as Jo Adell in terms of power to all fields, but with more refined plate discipline. His 2023 season has seen him strike out at 22.3% while also walking at an absurd 19.6% of the time, and featuring a BABIP (batting average on balls in play) of .415. A high BABIP may suggest that some of Cowser's early season success has been partly due to luck, but the reality is that he just makes hard contact and swings at good pitches to hit.

This can be supported by looking at his ISO (isolated power is a metric that looks solely at the number of times a player got an extra base hit, and yields a percentage that tells us out of all the hits a player has, what percentage of them were extra base hits) which is .223. Any player that hits for extra bases 20% or more of the time any time they get a hit is accomplishing an impressive feat, providing their team with the ability to get runners in, and get into scoring position -- not to mention the long ball threat.

This trade is pretty straight forward, the repeated Cleveland offering of Shane Bieber and Joey Cantillo in exchange for Austin Hays or Anthony Santander, Colton Cowser, and Heston Kjerstad. The inclusion of Hays or Santander would provide needed veteran presence if Cleveland does not believe they'd employ Cowser this season to full time Major League duties, or to avoid potential super two status (an extra year of arbitration) for Cowser. The Guardians do not develop power hitting outfielders historically, and Baltimore has stumbled on to a wealth of talent that if used correctly can help propel them to a pennant, and deep playoff runs over the next two seasons. This trade is the most mutually beneficial for both teams as it does not outright throw in the towel on playoff contention. The inclusion of Joey Cantillo is a sweetener, and makes sense for Cleveland to deal him while his value is high and a log jam in front of him is blocking his path.

4. Brent Rooker - OF, Oakland Athletics

There's not much pleasantry surrounding Oakland and their current state of affairs. To be quite honest, the Athletics are terrible and their ownership appears to be content with being so as long as it nets the team the ability to relocate. Fans be cursed, the Vegas promised land will surely fix all of their problems.

Blatant tanking aside, Oakland has come across a promising young outfielder in Brent Rooker. Rooker is in year one of his pre-arbitration eligibility, which means that his cost is going to be more prospect driven than anything. Oakland is not a playoff contender and they are unlikely to extend Shane Bieber if they acquired him via trade, so look for Oakland to get back a haul of prospects if they trade him. Again, everyone has a price.

There is precedent to believe the Guardians and Athletics could get a deal done. Cleveland was linked heavily in the off-season to rumors surrounding Sean Murphy, but the deal fizzled as Oakland's alleged asking price was astronomical. Here's some comparison of what the A's asking price was from St. Louis in exchange for Murphy:

Murphy would eventually be traded to the Braves.

As for Rooker, his 2023 is off to a solid start worthy of being talked about. In 48 games, he is batting .261/.364/.509 with eleven home runs and eight doubles. While his OPS tallies at .864, his wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) is 146, meaning he produces offense 46% better than a league average hitter. Keep in mind that wRC+ accounts for ballpark factor, and Oakland has a park factor of 95 -- meaning that the park slightly favors pitchers. This means that Rooker's slugging factor is no joke. His splits are very traditional for a right-handed hitter and are:

For a team in need of some serious smash versus left handed pitching, Rooker would be a nice piece provided that the A's would actually sell him at a price that Cleveland would agree to. His slugging against RHP is by no means terrible and would absolutely be a welcome addition. It's no secret that Cleveland's front office team runs a tight ship in terms of not getting cheated in the trade market, and that was further solidified by the refusal to pay the A's astronomical ask for Sean Murphy.

If the price is right, this trade looks a bit different as it does not use Shane Bieber as leverage. This deal (using previous trades Oakland has made as a reference) will pull from Cleveland's deep farm system. The A's farm system isn't anything to write home about in its current state, which means they should be looking for good, young talent. Cleveland would send Joey Cantillo, Angel Martinez, and Petey Halpin in exchange for Brent Rooker, J.T. Ginn, and Joey Estes. Ginn and Estes are mid 90's fastball throwers with decent command, exactly what Cleveland likes.

It may be wishful thinking to assume the A's would make such a deep prospect heavy deal on both sides - as both teams are taking a large leap of faith in the future outcome of all players involved, but it's not impossible. Cleveland could even potentially include Amed Rosario to increase the return and to clear the way for Brayan Rocchio to take the reins at shortstop in 2024. Rooker has cooled off a bit in the month of May, but his ceiling is high enough that Antonetti should at least make a phone call.

5. Andy Pages - OF, Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Dodgers are currently hurting for venerable starting pitching. Julio Urias, Dustin May, and Walker Buehler are all out of the Dodgers starting rotation.

Injuries on a contending team are nightmare fuel for any front office, and the Dodgers are no exception. Although the NL West is fairly competitive, they are still very much in a position to win a pennant, and a veteran like Shane Bieber would help steady the helm through the storm. The Guardians need outfield power, and LA has just the right guy: Andy Pages.

Pages is the #6 ranked prospect in the Dodgers farm system, and so far he looks to be the real deal. In the 2023 Double-A season at Tulsa he is batting .277/.425/.482. That's good for an OPS of .907 across 31 hits, 12 doubles and three dingers over 34 games and 112 plate appearances. He was promoted to Triple-A Oklahoma City on May 16th and had three at-bats that night, but was placed on the seven-day injured list the following day.

Pages is most likely ready to play everyday at the highest level, but it's hard to make that assessment and be certain without at least a decent sampling of his performance in Oklahoma City. It will be curious to see how he recovers and performs, as that may influence what LA's front office decides to do with him in the long term.

Here's Andy Pages destroying baseballs:

That 60-grade power will play. So will his 70-grade arm:

Andy boasts a pretty solid combination of power and above average defense. A player comparison that comes to mind is a young Hunter Renfroe - power and a howitzer for an arm. He won't win any gold gloves, but he will give you a good amount of assists from the corner outfield. The Dodgers outfield is currently shored up by Chris Taylor, Mookie Betts, and James Outman. There's no guarantee that the Dodgers believe Pages can help them this year, but that doesn't mean he can't help someone else both now and in the future.

Again, Bieber is the main offering in this trade from Cleveland in exchange for Pages, but this deal is not a candidate for a straight up swap. The Guardians would need to give up returned control for what they would be acquiring in Pages. Cleveland would also seek additional lower tier arms to bolster Low-A and High-A rotation depth. LA will likely ask for return middle infield depth.

The deal looks something like this: Cleveland sends Shane Bieber, and one of Brayan Rocchio or Angel Martinez in exchange for Andy Pages, Emmet Sheehan and Maddux Bruns.

All of these trades make the Guardians younger at their core, and none of the aforementioned players are lightweight capital to acquire by any means. Perhaps the Guardians front office believes that their true contention window begins starting in 2024, and that the current conundrum is a storm to be weathered to aid in player development. If so, any one of these trades would be solid additions that bolster that window and fill the desperate need for spark that the Guardians brand of baseball needs.

Power isn't everything, but it sure can help when things starts to feel desperate. That feeling of desperation is far too familiar for the Guardians in 2022 thus far, and it's time for Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff to reap the rewards of their diligence in developing such a rich farm system.