Get the bye: Guards can change playoff outlook with strong September

The Cleveland Guardians are going to be a playoff team. Well, Fangraphs gives them a 99.6% chance to be a playoff team, so for today’s sake, they are a playoff team. According to FanGraphs, only the Yankees and Orioles have greater playoff odds than the Guardians, while the Astros and Twins have more than 95% chances to reach October. With five of the American League’s six playoff teams practically set a month out from the playoffs (and the Royals being odds-on favorites for the sixth seed), the Guardians must focus on achieving a Fast Pass through the AL Wild Card round.

For those who might be unfamiliar, the sport’s governing body recently amended the playoff format, increasing it to twelve teams (six per league). This raises questions about the legitimacy of the back-end teams and the road maps of the favorites. Penn State and Notre Dame are expected to jump into yearly playoff contention; just kidding. However, it appears every sport wants a twelve-team playoff. The American and National Leagues will each send six teams to the playoffs, broken down by three division winners and three wild card bids per league. The top two divisional winners by record from each league will receive a bye, while the lowest-ranked division champ will duke it out with the third wild card team for the right to play in the divisional series. The top two wild card teams also play each other for a divisional series bid.

Rest, opponents, and home-field advantage contribute to playoff success outside of roster/managerial strengths. While the Guardians can no longer add a pitcher like Garrett Crochet on October 1, a strong September can make October a much easier month for the Guardians.

The Guardians have had their fair share of recent struggles. The one thing that’s been made apparent during the regular season is the Cleveland Guardians' need for depth and talent in the starting pitching department. A once-vaunted rotation that finished in the top 10 in the league in quality starts every season from 2016-2022 has flatlined to 28th this season. The Royals, Astros, Orioles, and Twins are all in the top 10 in quality starts this season, while the Yankees sit right behind at 12th in the league. It should also be noted that while the Guardians are 14th in the league in runs scored, all five teams primed for the playoffs in the AL rank ahead of Cleveland.

There’s one major thing the Guardians do better than these teams. The Guardians have the best bullpen in the AL by nearly 0.70 ERA over the Astros. Cleveland’s bullpen, led by Cy Young candidate Emmanuel Clase, is head and shoulders above every other bullpen it will face in October. The Guardians bullpen also has a massive advantage over the bullpen staff of the Orioles, Twins, and Royals. While the Guardians don’t stand out offensively as a team in many categories, the core of Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, and Steven Kwan should be ample to present a challenge for any opposing pitching staff. This team doesn’t have a ton of stats backing up its strengths, but it’s a team that, without their best pitcher, has soared to the top of baseball with a rookie manager. They’re a resilient team with a strong bullpen. This team can win in October.

There is one key area that will play a major factor for the Guardians come October.

How can a team with a strong bullpen and a knack for emotional wins stay alive? Rest! Emotional wins take a lot out of athletes and rested bullpens perform better. The 2024 Guardians, who are very similar to the 2022 Guardians, will have to find similar ways to win playoff games—which we found out in 2022 were emotionally charged comebacks speared by the bullpen. Unlike the 2022 team, the ‘24 Guards can still avoid the AL Wild Card Round. No matter the opponent's difficulty, a wild card round win changes the order of starting pitchers for the ALDS. In 2022, playing in a two-game Wild Card killed the Guards' odds against the Yankees, as staff aces Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie only went once, while the more pedestrian Cal Quantrill went twice. No matter the combination of Bibee/Lively/Cobb/Boyd/Williams you prefer, the option to send your preferred arms in the first three games is a game-changer.

If the Guardians clinch a bye, they will likely get the #2 seed, with the top spot reserved for the winner of the AL East. Cleveland holds a lead on Houston for the two seed, so if both teams held serve, Houston would be the three seed and host the third wild card. By getting the wild card bye, the Guardians can utilize the pitchers they want and welcome a tough team like Houston to Progressive Field. The Astros will likely not have Framber Valdez or Ronel Blanco available to start the series, which will also likely mean the Astros need to dig into their bullpen early in the ALDS, much like Cleveland had to against New York in ‘22. 

If the Guardians were to win the ALDS, it would also create an exciting scenario for the ALCS. While the Guards/Astros matchup is waged, it’s possible that the AL’s two best records, the Yankees and Orioles, will be matched up on the other side of the bracket. Should the lower-seeded team win, which is possible given the 90+ win pace both titans are on, the Guardians would host the ALCS with a World Series bid on the line. That’s why the Guardians need a strong September push. Should September bring struggles, the Guardians may be forced into a best-of-3 in Minnesota, but if Cleveland can make a strong push for a few more weeks, it’s hard not to be excited that the weakened Astros might await.