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Cleveland Guardians offseason outlook: The bullpen

By Kevin Devine |
Division Series - Cleveland Guardians v New York Yankees - Game Five
Division Series - Cleveland Guardians v New York Yankees - Game Five / Elsa/GettyImages
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Relief pitchers are notoriously fickle, probably the most inconsistent position in baseball. This may be due to the limited sample size that they pitch each year, increasing the impact of streakiness. It may also be due to the constant up-and-down and the intensity with which they have to approach every appearance. Attempting to build a consistently elite bullpen year-after-year is among the most challenging parts of roster construction.

As we take a look at the state of the Guardians bullpen at the start of the offseason, make sure to check out the rest of our analysis on the state of Cleveland’s roster as it currently stands:

Guardians Bullpen Performance in 2022

The Guardians bullpen was dominant in 2022, led by All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase, who saved 42 games with a 1.36 ERA in 72.2 innings over 77 games. Clase was supported by a bevy of young, talented arms.

James Karinchak has been the Guardians’ poster boy for bullpen stat fluctuations. After posting an ERA of 2.67 in 2020, it ballooned up to 4.07 in 2021 before he posted a dominant 2.01 ERA across 39 innings in 2022. Lefty Sam Hentges was converted from a struggling starter into a reliever this year and dominated with a 2.32 ERA in 62 innings before dominating as a multi-inning option in the playoffs. Trevor Stephan was 6-5 with a 2.69 ERA and three saves in 66 relief appearances with a K/9 of 11.6. Nick Sandlin was 5-2 with a 2.25 ERA in 44 innings pitched before suffering a re-injury of his teres major muscle in Game 2 of the wild-card series.

Overall, the Guardians ranked fifth in bullpen ERA at 3.05, and that ranking improved to second in MLB after the All-Star break. This came after MLB.com in their ranking of the 10 best bullpens in baseball entering 2022 described the Guardians' relief unit as “young and thin and honestly, might not be any good.” This description just highlights how difficult it is to project bullpens, especially ones stocked with young pitchers.

Outlook for the Guardians Bullpen in 2023

Because of the inconsistencies year-to-year with relievers and bullpens, look for Cleveland GM Mike Chernoff to continue to add arms as bullpen options in 2022. The only regular contributor to the 2022 unit who is not back is Bryan Shaw, who was outrighted in September, but opted to remain with the team throughout their playoff run. It is unlikely that at 36 years old he will be brought back.

It is also highly unlikely that the Guardians will be active in adding bullpen arms via free agency this year. Rather, look for them to bring back a group that looks very similar to the bullpen they used throughout the second half of 2022 and the playoffs. Then, they will add from within as injuries occur and struggles necessitate reinforcements. They have a number of young starters who are close to being major-league ready and not all will fit into the rotation. Righties Daniel Espino, Tanner Bibee, Xzavion Curry, Cody Morris, Tanner Burns and left-handers Logan Allen and Joey Cantillo could fill a significant role out of the bullpen in 2023 if circumstances break right.

Overall, this is a deep, young, talented group. The sheer volume of arms that they have from both the right and left side provide insurance for injuries and inevitable struggles. Look for the Guardians bullpen to be a significant strength for them again in 2023.

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